Nov 20, 2009 8:31 AM Posted by Todd_Gutner Impressive downpours lighting up the radar this AM...they'll be gone by late morning...nice, but breezy afternoon. As far as the weekend goes I like both days a lot...Saturday especially! Mostly sunny and mild again with highs 55-60 degrees, can't beat it for outdoor fun. Sunday will be a little cooler based on a NE wind direction so highs will cap out in the lower 50s. The day will start out sunny but some low stratocumulus may form in the afternoon as the NE breeze kicks in...dry though!
A weaker low will approach on Monday starting the holiday week with some rain which may linger into Tuesday. Tuesday evening and Wednesday...big travel days...look fine and dry.
We have been entrenched in a warmer than normal ridging pattern most of this month. There is some model consistency now regarding an approaching trough for later next week. As it approaches late on Thanksgiving Day it will be trying to spin up an ocean low. However, as of now, the baroclinic zone appears to be setting up too far offshore and the trough appears progressive and not likely to set up shop on the East Coast for an extended period. So if a low does develop it may just be too far away and fairly fast moving. We will be keeping an eye on whether or not the trough trends going negative, slowing a developing system down and inching closer to us...time will tell.
Also, both the GFS and more so the Euro are now indicating the ridge trend in the east to be tough to break completely down...typical in an El Nino pattern. Thus, it appears that while we'll have colder outbreaks as we turn the calendar there will also be mild days too. Also something we are eyeing closely.
Have a good weekend all!
Nov 19, 2009 8:57 AM Posted by Todd_Gutner We are starting our annual snowfall contest...guess how much snow will be measured this year at Logan Airport and you could win a season pass to Mt. Wachusett! Put in your guess on the website here, or do it in person at the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo this weekend!
A cut-off low in the Midwest is finally starting to open up and move to the Northeast. Driven by and intensifying 300mb jet and a potent 500mb vort max this system, may look ragged now, will actually strengthen as it approaches us. The center of the storm will still roll up to our west then north pushing a front through New England tomorrow midday. That front will have some juice to work with as a flare up of showers off of the Carolina's will inject some moisture into the system as it races through. It will be a progressive front and won't stall over us for too long so rain amounts, while respectable, will not be even close to the soaking numbers we got last weekend. The front should be through by 1PM and NW winds will pick up in its wake...drying us out nicely and even supplying some sunny breaks later in the day. The air following the front has had time to moderate when the storm was stagnant in the center of the nation so once again fairly mild air on both weekend days. Saturday will be bright and Sunday will too for that matter but I am a little concerned that low clouds could plague us for a time on Sunday especially over SE Mass.
Another storm originating from the juicy Gulf of Mexico will make a run at us early next week. Timing and strength are still in question but it does appear now that rain is likely on Monday and the system could stall into Tuesday as well. Good news here is that the busiest travel day of the year...Wednesday...looks dry. Nov 18, 2009 3:41 PM Posted by Ken_Barlow  Record Low According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea ice in October 2009 had the second-lowest ice extent for the month since 1979. Most of the lack of ice is being attributed to the very warm air mass over the area with most places registering temperatures as high as 11 degrees above normal. Some studies have in turn shown that the open water provides energy for storm formation which may in turn tear apart more of the ice sheet...interesting. During the month of October ice over the Arctic formed at a rate of nearly 37,000 square miles per day...remarkable when you consider that the Bay State is made up of a total of about 10,000 square miles. So everyday in October ice grew across the Arctic Sea at a rate of three times the size of MA! Check out some of the temperatures in Alaska this afternoon! Ice will REALLY form with temperatures like that! Usually in the weather world when Alaska is freezing we aren't! Case in point: Our amazing streak will last one more day with highs getting close to 60 on Thursday before showers arrive overnight and Friday. The weekend still looks dry! Nov 17, 2009 3:17 PM Posted by Ken_Barlow  ...for most So far this has been a November to remember...sure we had a big soaker on Saturday, but for the most part this normally cloudy and cool month has actually turned out to be quite pleasant! It's about to get even better with temperatures rising back into to near 60 by Thursday! The other good news is that the weekend storm which looked like it would give us a wet Sunday is now tracking further south and may just hold off until either Monday or Tuesday. Todd mentioned below that the average temperature so far this month is 3 degrees warmer than normal, the last time we saw such a warm November was 3 years ago. November 2006 ended up over 4 degrees warmer than normal but it was also wet with nearly six inches of rain! So as Thanksgiving draws near things seem pretty quiet and mild and there appears to be no major change to that...sure it will cool down from time to time...but there are no signs of any Arctic invasions anywhere in the US right into next week! Nov 17, 2009 9:01 AM Posted by Todd_Gutner Fun Facts:
1) The date of Boston's average first freeze has come and gone...that day was November 7th. Tonight will be another opportunity to drop down to the freezing mark of 32 degrees as the triples c's will be with us (clear, calm & cold). Even though the burbs will be in the 20s and maybe even a few upper teens tomorrow morning and again on Thursday morning, the heat island effect will likely prevent temps at Logan from getting down to 32...thus, the wait will go on.
2) Today's high will be more November-like...near 50...but the average temp in Boston this month is running nearly 3 degrees above normal...and milder than normal air is expected through the weekend.
3) Despite the soaker over the weekend, precip amounts are running about a half inch below normal.
4) Lastly, the month of November averages 1.3" of Snow...we've had none. (We did have measurable snow back in October...0.1" on the 18th)
Nov 16, 2009 4:28 PM Posted by Ken_Barlow The annual meteor shower peaks after midnight tonight and early Tuesday and with clear skies and no moonlight, due to the new moon, conditions should be perfect for viewing. Many areas should see as many as 20 to 30 per hour...check out the top ten facts about the Leonid meteors and enjoy the show! Nov 16, 2009 8:21 AM Posted by Todd_Gutner Stagnant flow across the US this week bodes well for us. A mature cyclone in the Midwest is "cut-off" from the westerlies and will spin for days out there. High pressure from Southern Canada will settle into the Northeast instead. This means days of sunshine this week. With the airmass briefly chilly tomorrow temps may be a bit below normal but the air will moderate nicely by the end of the week and once again another November week that will average out above normal for temps.
So, will this pattern breakdown? In the short term, the answer is no. A large Aleutian Low in the Pacific, typical in an El Nino pattern, is creating trofiness in the West and promotes ridging in the East. There are, however, some indications that a pattern shift will occur late in the month chilling us down as we turn the calender to December. So stay tunes Winter lovers...there is some hope down the line for you. For now though warm weather lovers (like myself) are more than happy!
Nov 15, 2009 8:32 PM Posted by Barry_Burbank  7AM Thursday map After yesterday's monsoonal conditions, the atmosphere dried out just enough to enable some sunshine to break through many areas this afternoon. As a result, temperatures spiked into the lower to middle 60s. It will turn out being the warmest day of the week because cooler air will drain into the region behind a departing weak cold front early tomorrow. Before its arrival, the residual moist air will condense out into fog for many locations. Exercise caution while driving into the night. Drier air may begin to gobble up the fog during or, in some cases, prior to the morning commute hours. Varying amounts of cloudiness above the groundfog will be thinning and decreasing so tomorrow will turn out much sunnier with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 as a drying northwesterly wind freshens to 10-20 mph.
The steering currents will propel a sprawling zone of high air pressure from the Great Lakes into New England as the week progresses. The center of the high pressure will be poised right over us Wednesday into Thursday. Consequently, it will be a perfect setup for premium radiational cooling conditions. Expect suburban lows in the lower to middle 20s late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and middle to upper 50s on Thursday. Plan on a nippy breeze Tuesday with light wind thereafter through Thursday. The next minor frontal boundary will introduce clouds Thursday night with a period of showers on Friday. This will not be a heavy rainmaker. Partly sunny weather should return for next weekend.
The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks early Tuesday morning. With no moonlight and a clear sky, we should have optimum conditions for viewing the anticipated 20 to 30 "shooting stars" per hour in the best viewing period from 1-5am.
Make it a good week and GO PATS! Nov 15, 2009 8:40 AM Posted by Sarah_Wroblewski It’s a cloudy, murky start to the day with areas of fog and
patchy drizzle. We’ll find the risk of a spot shower or patch of drizzle
through the morning hours. It can only get better from here. By the afternoon drier conditions will arrive,
although along the coast some mist may continue. Cloudy skies will eventually
begin to break across western MA through the afternoon and breaks of sunshine
will develop from west to east, clearing out completely overnight. Highs will
be above normal for this time of year getting into the upper 50s to low 60s, perhaps
milder on the Cape, as temps are already in
the low 60s. However, I believe the clouds will hang tough there today, so not
much budge in the temperatures are expected.
Last year on this day the mercury hit 70 degrees. Then…later
in the week temperatures dropped well below normal and we were stuck in the 30s
for a few days. Lucky for us…that pattern is not setting up this year. Temperatures
will remain above normal tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s under brighter
skies. High pressure will then move overhead, bringing slightly cooler air, but
really only dropping temperatures back to near normal. With that area of high
pressure… lots of sunshine! It’s a good time to be in New
England! Enjoy your Sunday everyone and GO PATS!
ALSO…since most comments on recent blogs have been about an
extended winter forecast, what do you think about this article? Do you think
this is right? I would love to hear your thoughts!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091111/ts_afp/chinaweathersnow/print
One other thing to note…The Boston Globe Ski & Snowboard
Expo is this Thursday, November 19th through Sunday, November 22, 2009.
Each member of the weather team will be making an appearance at some point or
another. I’ll be there next Sunday, so make plans and head to the expo and come
by the WBZ traveling weather center and say hi! I would love to meet you! For
more information click the link below!
http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston
Nov 14, 2009 5:38 PM Posted by Barry_Burbank  It has been a soggy Saturday. The rain has varied from drizzle to downpours and, according to our special WBZ Weather Watchers, NWS Skywarn Spotters and over 125 stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network, has amounted to 1.2 to 3.8 inches in the viewing range of WBZ. Copious amounts in the range of 4 to 5.5 inches drenched southern and central Maine resulting in stream and river flooding. Otherwise, ponding of roadways in poor drainage locations was the main problem in today's storm over southern New England. There has been little wind inland but a gustier onshore flow up to 20-35 mph occurred over southeastern Massachusetts. Seas have been rough thanks to the wind over the ocean and the higher waves generated by the storm which has been pounding the Mid-Atlantic Coast much of the week. This system has weakened significantly and is centered hundreds and hundreds of miles south of New England. It is settling southeastward. Its moist conduit is decaying over the region as the heaviest rain meanders over northern New England this evening. Elsewhere, spotty heavy showers will dwindle to occasional bursts of mist. There will probably be some areas of dense fog later at night and the wind on the coastal plain will subside. With the cloudcover, temperatures will only drop a few degrees into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Low level moisture will be locked in tomorrow morning so expect a calm, murky and gloomy several hours. There is still a risk of mist and a few spotty showers until about midday. Then some brightening is possible in the afternoon with breaks of sunshine most likely over western New England. Despite the absence of sunshine, the temperatures could rise to the upper 50s to near or slightly over 60.
Starting Monday, several days of bright sunshine will occur over the Northeast as a sprawling zone of high air pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. The center of the high pressure will be right over Massachusetts Wednesday morning. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s Monday, near 50 Tuesday, lower 50s Wednesday, middle to upper 50s Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the 30s and even some 20s Monday night through Wednesday night. Latest guidance suggests that it could stay dry through much of next weekend. That would be nice!
Enjoy the rest of the weekend. | |
