Beyond The Forecast

The large ocean storm developed very far away from us...as far as precip goes we just got grazed with some rain and snow showers.  The wind however is going to be strong enough to be annoying.  Gusts will exceed 30 mph and with temps in the 30s this morning it will feel more like 20s out there.  The storm will continue to chug away from us this afternoon and the winds will relax a bit.  Temps will still struggle into the upper 40s this afternoon despite bright sunshine.

There isn't much bad to say about the weekend.  It's been a while since we have said that BOTH weekend days are going to be great...so I'm happy to pass it along!  Saturday will be seasonably cool with temps climbing into the lower 50s but the wind won't be that bad and I'd be shocked to see any clouds...great Autumn day!

Sunday's my pick of the weekend...temps will be much warmer reaching 60 degrees in the afternoon on a warm SW wind.  Again few if any clouds will be present and if there are any they will be high thin cirrus clouds responding to the warming airmass aloft.

That warming airmass really throws us a treat early next week.  With ridging up and down the East Coast temps aloft will be warm enough to support 70 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday.  The records are a reach on both days in Boston.  Monday's record is 74 degrees set back in 1945 and Tuesday's record is 78 degrees set back in 1931...probably out of reach.  Still it will feel plenty warm enough!

By the way...Boston's average date of first frost is November 7th and we are still waiting for our first frost of the season at Logan.  Tonight could be that night...temps in the burbs will dip into the 20s while over at Logan I am expecting lower 30s...32,33,34...somewhere in that ballpark.  So if it happens tonight, it will be right on the money as far as the date goes...kind of interesting.

Lastly, the next two weeks are expected to be above normal for temps and below normal for precip according to the CPC...at the moment doesn't appear that any snowstorms are in the cards...hang in there...

Have a great weekend every one!

 

There are no big changes in the forecast. A zone of high pressure is providing our decent weather today albeit somewhat cooler than average for November 4. It still looks like the ocean storm will be brewing but most of its fury will be spent well offshore later tomorrow into Friday. Nova Scotia will be getting a good beating of wind and rain but our area will only receieve a few spotty light rain showers tomorrow as a burst of energy arrives from the west. This energy will be transferred into the developing ocean storm and as it blossoms, parts of coastal New England may get backlashed with a couple bands of precipitation swirling around the western flank of the offshore circulation. Consequently, some rain showers are probable tomorrow night with a chance of some wet snowflakes mixing in as the column of atmosphere cools and especailly if any heavy precipitation briefly spins in. In any event, I do not anticiapte any problems at this point for the morning commute on Friday. There will be a gusty north to northwesterly wind and some sunshine will return. Thereafter, high pressure takes control through the weekend into the first part of next week. Initially, we'll be on the cold side of the system on Saturday with morning temperatures starting out in the middle 20s to middle 30s.. Via ample sunshine, there will be a recovery to slightly over 50 degrees that day followed by highs closer to 60 on Sunday afternoon. It should be delightful for the 1pm Patriots Game at Gillette Stadium. On Monday, with some sunshine and a few clouds, it will warm up to the middle 60s except along the coast where a seabreeze will keep it in the 50s. Then a south-southwesterly wind will maintain the warmth in the 60s on Tuesday. The next weathermaker will be a cold front which will produce a band of rain showers Tuesday night.

Enjoy the rest of the day.

Not much going on right now and we are still guarded about a developing storm for late in the week.  Presently, most models are developing a doozie offshore and that exact location of development is still up in the air but cyclogeneis and rapid intensification still appears to be pretty far out there.  None the less we will still feel some effects and for some there is potential for a sizable Noreaster type storm.  I am most concerned for the Cape and the Islands...closest to the cyclones center.  It still appears that the height of the storm will be Friday morning that is when the northern stream storm begins the phasing process with the southern stream...the system goes negative and cuts off aloft and large pressure falls occur at the surface, bottoming out between 980-990mb...pretty low.  With pressure that low and a strong high to our west, the pressure gradient force has me concerned for damaging wind gusts mainly along the coastline.  BUFKIT soundings show sustained winds over 30mph and with the low stacking up through the atmosphere wind will transfer down to the surface with the potential to gust over 5 0 mph!!!  Believe me, I'm not an alarmist and I don't like to throw out numbers this far in advance but Friday morning on the Cape and Islands could be a rough one!

 

A weak wave of low pressure southeast of Nantucket is moving away from New England so today's sprinkles and light showers over southeastern Massachusetts have ended but the clouds will linger and blot out the light of the Full Beaver Moon through much of the night over many areas. Meantime, we're watching a cold front chugging across the Great lakes. It is destined to pass through the Boston area late tomorrow afternoon to early evening with nothing more than a band of clouds. Between tonight's clouds and those clouds arriving tomorrow afternoon, there should be a spell of sunshine developing tomorrow morning. The temperatures will max out near the average for November 3 at 56 degrees but, after that, chillier weather will persist through Saturday morning. With the cold frontal passage, the wind will become brisk tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Until then, the westerly breeze will be rather meager. Then as a large zone of high pressure builds into the Northeast Wednesday, sunshine will be prevalent through midday as the wind slackens. Later that afternoon, the high cloudiness will be appearing as the next weathermaker dives toward the region. It consists of two parcels of energy in the upper air. It appears that there will be a phasing or linkage of these packages which will trigger cyclogenesis over the ocean. The storm's precise place of birth, intensification rate and departure speed will determine if coastal New England will reap any precipitation. Presently, the initialization is projected to occur well out at sea suggesting that most of the backlashing will miss the region. However, as the amplifying trough of low pressure passes overhead, a few spotty rain showers could happen Thursday afternoon and evening with a potential switch to snow showers and flurries over hillier terrain farther north and west of Boston. Any early snowflakes Friday morning will vanish as the storm tracks south of Nova Scotia and a strengthening ridge of high pressure closes in from the west. As a result, the gusty wind will blow much of Friday as sunshine becomes more widespread but temperatures will fail to rise above the lower to middle 40s. Once the ridge of high air pressure sets up south of New England, a return southwesterly flow of milder air commences over the weekend when it will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Temperatures will rise to near or a bit over 50 on Saturday, 55-60 on Sunday and 60-65 on Monday.

Have a good Tuesday.

OK, it's a new month and it's getting colder.  The first week of November will offer up a slim chance to see some snowflakes.  Late Thursday afternoon cyclogenesis will be occurring in our offshore waters.  Let me start by saying that at the moment the rapid intensification looks to happen a little too far away from us for anything significant...most of the precip will fall over the fish.  But, the dynamics alone are strong enough and present to produce showers or areas of precip over us Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Temps are the critical player in that they will likely be too warm on Thursday due to an influx of maritime air from the SE shooting boundary layer temps into the 40s.  But at Thursday night, when the low is consolidating and getting stronger northerly winds will take over drawing in cold to the toward the storm center.  At the surface, early Friday morning, temps will be at their coldest and that is our best chance to see flakes. 

Just thought I'd throw it out there for all you snowlovers.  I'll discuss more tomorrow.  Again, this is several days off and doesn't look to be a problem at all but kind of fun to discuss snow again...that is why I am throwing it out there.

Have a good afternoon.

Barry is tonight with his thoughts...

 

There are two troublespots in this week's forecast. The first one occurs late tomorrow into tomorrow night when there is some uncertainty about rain release. A weak wave of low pressure could fringe southeastern Massachusetts with sprinkles and light showers. The more ominous dilemma is scheduled for later Thursday into Friday morning. At that time, the potential phasing of two upper air disturbances could evolve into a developing coastal storm near New England. Its precise place of birth, intensification rate and departure speed cannot be confidently determined at this time and all of these factors are crucial to forecast accuracy. Presently, I will recommend following Todd and Ken over the next few days to see if anything substantial could materialize. Right now, my thinking is leaning toward a close call meaning that the storm will deepen into a gale center in the Canadian Maritimes after it teases our region with some rain near the coast and a changeover to some snow farther north and west of Boston Thursday night. Clearly, there will not be any warm days coming up soon with expected high temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees below the average the second half of the week. Friday will be the coldest and windiest. In the meantime, hopefully, we'll have a couple nights of moonshine with the Full Beaver Moon occurring Tuesday.

Make it a good week!

 

The month is new and the time has changed. Welcome to November. It is my least-liked month because it is, statistically, the gloomiest of the year, the sunsets happen before 5pm, the final leaves fall to their death and must be cleaned up and the landscape turns brown and barren. The average high temperatures fall from 57 at the beginning to 47 by the end of the month. Thanksgiving is one of the good things to look forward to. What is your least-liked month?

Well, another Halloween has come and gone with the wind. We had 77 trick or treaters visit our home. Some of them expressed their thanks for the warm weather. Wish I could say that I had something to do with that. The only thing I did was predict on my last weathercast on Tuesday noon that it would hit 73 degrees on Halloween and at 2:11pm yesterday, the high temperature in Boston hit 73!. Now it's back to reality today as the highs max out in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Early morning sprinkles and light showers are drying up so there will be a transition to a brightening sky followed by decreasing cloudiness and increasing sunshine from later this morning into the afternoon. Just remember that sunset occurs at 4:37pm today. UGH!

A wave of low pressure is lagging behind over eastern Virginia. That system will poke some high cloudiness into southern New England later tonight then thicken tomorrow and the northwestern flank of its rain shield could spill over Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Boston could briefly receive some sprinkles tomorrow evening then the system exits and clearing will follow by dawn Tuesday. The wave will be kicked out by an approaching cold front which will introduce some patches of clouds Tuesday afternoon with nothing more than a few spotty quick-hitting showers mainly up north later in the day. After the cold frontal passage, the wind will become brisk and gusty Wednesday morning as cold air rushes in from Canada. From then on through Friday, temperatures will only peak out in the middle 40s which is a solid 10 degrees below the average for the first week of November. Presently, I am not expecting any real stormy weather with this cold outbreak but an upper air impulse might trigger a few snow showers later Thursday or Friday. Milder weather will return with sunshine next weekend.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

 

Happy Halloween!!! Despite the fact that the forecast is a bit tricky…I believe many will find it to be a treat! The average temperature for the end of October is usually in the upper 50s in Boston. Over the past several (5) years, Halloween has been unseasonably mild. Last year the high temperature in Boston was 63…the year before 64…2006 it was 65….2005 it was 70….2004 it was 72! Well we are going to keep this trend going this year making for a sweet forecast! However…I did mention a few tricky parts…so here it goes…

This morning, cloudy skies with a few areas of drizzle are likely. The cloudy conditions have led to a mild morning, with temperatures mainly in the 50s.  We will continue to watch a cold front slowly move eastward that has barreled through the US with heavy rain and snow, but now bringing a band of rain to the eastern Great Lakes to the TN Valley. Ahead of this front, gusty south to southwest winds will continue to transport mild conditions into our region. Honestly if this were a bright sunny day, temperatures would rocket to near record levels. However…due to the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere, mostly cloudy skies will prevail and it will be hard to reach those record temperatures. Yet, it will be warm…well above average with highs in the afternoon reaching the mid to upper 60s and even a few spots in the low 70s.  Even though we will stay fairly cloudy, we may find a few breaks of sunshine in between the clouds. Any breaks that may develop will play a role on how high the temperatures will go. The layers in the atmosphere above us are very warm and windy. Even though a few gusts to near 30 mph have been recorded this morning, the peak of the gusty conditions will occur this afternoon. The National Weather Service has issues a Wind Advisory from 1pm to 6pm this evening for most of central and eastern MA as well as the NH seacoast and coastal ME.  South to southwest winds will range between 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 to 50 mph. This is assuming that skies remain mostly cloudy…with any breaks of sun, better mixing in the upper to lower levels of the atmosphere may occur and this could lead to even windier conditions. (See…these are the tricky parts of the forecast!) Another tricky part will be the timing of the prefrontal precipitation. As this front nears the area this evening, a few showers are likely to pop ahead of the main band of precipitation.  A spot shower could be possible during the afternoon, although near sunset is when a few to scattered showers may develop in western areas, slowly translating eastward during the evening.

The actual frontal passage occurs tonight, so we will find rain at times. It will remain mild overnight too, due to the mostly cloudy skies and rain showers. A few lingering showers will be found early tomorrow morning, especially for the Cape and Islands, however as the front continues to push offshore, gradual clearing will occur for the Bay state. (Don’t forget that we gain an extra hour of sleep…Turn those clocks back! Yet…sunset will be at 4:37pm! BOO!)  The area will find a mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon. It will be cooler tomorrow than today, but right near normal with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will also be much lighter and out of the northwest.  

Overall, the Trick or Treat forecast isn’t too bad with very mild conditions. Just remember to hold onto your candy as those winds will be gusty! Also, before you head out, don’t forget to check out the latest Doppler radar  to see what’s happening in your neighborhood! Have a Happy and safe Halloween everyone!