Beyond The Forecast

While it looks like this Thanksgiving will be a quiet one, weather-wise we certainly have ahd our share of nasty weather looking back at weather history.

As record has it, the English settlers and Wampanoag Indians had nice weather during the first Thanksgiving harvest celebration in 1621, a three-day event that took place in Massachusetts. However, not all Thanksgiving holidays have been as pleasant in New England or other regions of the United States since then. We've looked at more than 100 years of Thanksgiving weather, from damaging winds in New England to blizzards in Denver. Read about some of the most memorable Thanksgiving weather. 

Thanks to www.earthguage.net!

It's been so warm lately that some of the trees have been fooled...my neighbor's Saucer Magnolia tree is budding up with green...incredible!  It just finished shedding it's leaves a month ago now it wants to grow them back...does it know something we all don't?!?!?  We'll see...

Raw NE winds took over yesterday and so went our warm / sunny weather.  That wind direction not only keeps it cool but it promotes clouds to develop and get trapped...therefore limited sun today and tomorrow...ahhhh now that's the November I know.  Not only will it be cool and gray but low pressure (very weak low BTW) will move up from the SE and spread a little moisture our way later today and tonight.  Rain will be unimpressive with amounts possibly topping .25" over SE Mass with less amounts elsewhere...nothing we can't handle.  A small bubble of high pressure will build in for the busiest travel day of the year...good news for us on the roads here in the Northeast, hey there might even be some sunglare!  Thanksgiving Day is looking a little better this morning...we should start the day with some sunshine then as the high drifts off to the NE, stratocu should develop in the afternoon...but nice for the morning games and fine for the evening walks.  At the same time, a more potent low will be taking shape to our south.  As the digging trough to our west slows and cuts off, it will draw the surface low to our west too keeping us on the warmer side of the storm and thus just rain...but windswept rain.  The giant cut-off will meander into Canada with the surface low stacked beneath it...thus some very good mixing will occur on Saturday and even Sunday...I'm expecting very windy conditions and that wind will be tapping much colder air with highs only in the lower 40s over the weekend. 

This is one of the biggest traveling weeks of the entire year as folks go over the river and through the woods for the Thanksgiving holiday. Fortunately, cooperative weather will occur from coast to coast most of this period. There will be a few minor trouble spots but no major storms are anticipated anywhere. One glitch will be placed over the Great Lakes States from midweek toward the weekend. In this area, showers of rain and snow with a brisk cold wind will make it a bit wintery and some small accumulation of snow is possible in Wisconsin into northern Minnesota and northern Michigan. Additionally, a developing storm in the Northeast may produce some snow in upstate New York into northern Vermont Thursday night and Friday. This system could release a spell of heavier rain and wind in the rest of New England part of Friday. Once the storm departs later Friday, some really cold air will rush into the region and linger into the following week. The northern mountains will receive some accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday with perhaps a few flakes in the air as far south as the Mass Pike.

More specifically for our area, one year ago today, the maximum temperature in Boston was only 29 degrees! It popped up to a high of 51 at 11:18 this morning before lots of clouds arrived a few hours early from the east. These clouds will be in and out of areas north and west of Boston this evening while an overcast has evolved near and south of the city. Eventually, the cloud deck will expand farther inland and a few pockets of mist could materialize by dawn. In the more clear areas north and west, the temperatures will dive into the frosty upper 20s to lower 30s this evening then rise later while it will remain above 40 in the cloudy zone all night. Over the next couple days, gloomy conditions are likely with low level moisture stuck in place thanks to a maritime flow generated by a ridge of high pressure to the north and a wave or two of weak low pressure running out underneath New England to the south. It now appears that heavier rain is less likely but plan on periodic to occasional light rain or mist through Tuesday with the dampest area along and south of the Mass Pike. A bubble of high pressure should push this dreary weather seaward on Wednesday so with some returning sunshine, it should bump up to the middle 50s after only upper 40s at best for tomorrow and Tuesday. For all of the football games and road races on Thanksgiving morning, there is a risk that some pockets of light rain will move through with temperatures rising through the 40s with light wind.

Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving week.

It should be another great day across New England! A large area of high pressure will lead to sunny skies across the Bay State in the morning. North to northeasterly winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but highs will still climb into the low 50s, coolest along the immediate coast. These winds may also transport some moisture inland in the form of some clouds, especially in southeastern areas. This high pressure system will move across northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. I hope you enjoy the sunshine while you can, because clouds will increase overnight, as moisture from the Gulf Coastal States will be creeping up the eastern seaboard. With the presence of high pressure over the past couple of days, conditions should remain dry to start on Monday, although we’ll find thickening clouds. A few areas of drizzle or light showers will be possible as the day goes on as moisture begins to further intrude and the recent high pressure recedes. Latest models are becoming more consistent towards a developing system off the coast into Tuesday and this would lead to breezy and wet conditions with periods of rain at times. If this system develops further east, precipitation may be less widespread. It will be something to watch over the next few model cycles. Just in time for holiday travel, that system should depart on Wednesday leading to a weak bubble of high pressure moving over the area. (Another model keeps us under the clouds and damp through Wednesday as low level moisture lingers over us.) I still want to believe the best case scenario that this high will keep us dry, but move offshore on Turkey Day. As it looks right now…it will be a partly to mostly cloudy and dry for all those high school football games! Later in the day into Friday, another low pressure system will approach the region bringing the chance further rain showers and breezy conditions.

 

Well I’m headed to the Ski and Snowboard Expo! Hope to see you there! Have a great Sunday everybody and GO PATS!

 

Do you tweet??? Check out my twitter page at:

http://twitter.com/sarahwroblewski

After yesterday's 67 degrees, the temperature maxxed out at 58 at 3:25pm today in Boston which is still 8 degrees above the average for November 21. A year ago, we were experiencing mid-winter cold over a 5-day period from the 19th through the 23rd with respective high temperatures at only 33, 35, 35, 29 and 33! Although the next few days will be cooler than the last few, it will likely be Saturday before it turns much colder. Tomorrow's lower 50s will be followed by near or just under 50 degrees through much of the upcoming week thanks to several, cloudy, gloomy, damp days. With a ridge of high pressure setting up just to our north and a wave or two of low pressure emerging from the Gulf of Mexico then running out underneath New England, the stage is primed for some periodic to occasional mist and light rain Monday and Wednesday with some spells of heavier rain on Tuesday. The northeasterly wind will become raw and brisk and gustiest up to 30 mph or so later Monday and Tuesday over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There could be a break on Thanksgiving Day when splashes of sunshine could send it up to the middle 50s but the next weathermaker will arrive with rain and showers on Friday. As the storm departs, the gates will open to release some very cold air from Canada next weekend.

At this time, no snowstorms are projected for the travelers during this upcoming holiday week but there could be some snow flurries mainly over the hills next Saturday with some accumulating snow over the Green Mountains and northern White Mountains. Speaking of snow, check out the Boston Ski & Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston. The 4-day event concludes tomorrow. I was there at the WBZ Booth from noon to 8pm today and had the pleasure of meeting many great people. Stop by tomorrow and have your picture taken with Sarah Wroblewski. She will be on hand from 11am to 3pm. While there, submit your guess in the WBZ Snowfall Contest or you can enter right here on this web site.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

    Average November temperatures range from the upper 50s in the beginning of the month to the upper 40s by the end of the month. As the mercury hit 67 degrees yesterday it made me question how warm has this month been so far? 11 out of the past 20 days this month have seen either normal or above normal with respect to temperatures. Now 6 of those 11 days have seen the mercury in the 60s! The good news is that the mild conditions will continue into the weekend. Although we won’t hit the upper 60s like we did in some areas yesterday, we’ll still see temperatures about 10 degrees above the normal.

      As high and mid level clouds filter the sunshine at times today, temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be light out of the west as high pressure ridges into the region from the west. Winds will gradually turn northward overnight as skies become clear. Temperatures will fall back to the 30s overnight, which is not unusual for this time of year, however Boston may stay near 40 degrees. Lucky for us, high pressure continues to dominate the weather tomorrow! It will be another bright day, but as the dome of high pressure moves over northern New England, northeasterly winds will be over the area, leading to the development of perhaps a few more clouds in southeastern areas. It will also be slightly cooler than today with highs in the lower 50s…but hey…that is still above normal! The coolest conditions tomorrow will be along the immediate coast.

      Got Plans??? Well some of you might be taking advantage of the mild and dry conditions this weekend by putting up your outdoor holiday lights, but if you want to think snow….head to the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston! Barry Burbank will be there from 11 AM to 6 PM TODAY and I will be there from 11 AM to 3 PM tomorrow! Have a great weekend everyone!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston/ 

Alaska is freezing...literally. Bettles, Alaska reported a low temperature this morning of nearly 50 degrees below zero...that's with NO wind, thank you very much, so there was no wind chill. The high there today didn't even make it to -35! That's cold folks..and there the cold will remain..at least for now. The way the weather patterns usually works is that when things are bitterly cold in Alaska things are pretty comfortable/warm here in New England...this is a perfect example of that. There are times when that is not true but due to the wavelengths of the troughs and ridges this is typcially the case. A small piece of this frigid air will break free and drop south into Central Canada next week...the air will then modify as it continues its trek to the east. We will see some chilly weather here by next weekend, but certainly not anything that cold, in fact, most areas will still see highs in the 40s. This is the warmest November here in 3 years and that mild air will linger into next week with highs Saturday expected to hit 60 and then remain in the 50s right through Thanksgiving..before that cooldown  next weekend.

Impressive downpours lighting up the radar this AM...they'll be gone by late morning...nice, but breezy afternoon.  As far as the weekend goes I like both days a lot...Saturday especially!  Mostly sunny and mild again with highs 55-60 degrees, can't beat it for outdoor fun.  Sunday will be a little cooler based on a NE wind direction so highs will cap out in the lower 50s.  The day will start out sunny but some low stratocumulus may form in the afternoon as the NE breeze kicks in...dry though!

A weaker low will approach on Monday starting the holiday week with some rain which may linger into Tuesday.  Tuesday evening and Wednesday...big travel days...look fine and dry. 

We have been entrenched in a warmer than normal ridging pattern most of this month. There is some model consistency now regarding an approaching trough for later next week.  As it approaches late on Thanksgiving Day it will be trying to spin up an ocean low.  However, as of now, the baroclinic zone appears to be setting up too far offshore and the trough appears progressive and not likely to set up shop on the East Coast for an extended period.  So if a low does develop it may just be too far away and fairly fast moving.  We will be keeping an eye on whether or not the trough trends going negative, slowing a developing system down and inching closer to us...time will tell. 

Also, both the GFS and more so the Euro are now indicating the ridge trend in the east to be tough to break completely down...typical in an El Nino pattern.  Thus, it appears that while we'll have colder outbreaks as we turn the calendar there will also be mild days too.  Also something we are eyeing closely.

Have a good weekend all!

 

We are starting our annual snowfall contest...guess how much snow will be measured this year at Logan Airport and you could win a season pass to Mt. Wachusett!  Put in your guess on the website here, or do it in person at the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo this weekend!

A cut-off low in the Midwest is finally starting to open up and move to the Northeast.  Driven by and intensifying 300mb jet and a potent 500mb vort max this system, may look ragged now, will actually strengthen as it approaches us.  The center of the storm will still roll up to our west then north pushing a front through New England tomorrow midday.  That front will have some juice to work with as a flare up of showers off of the Carolina's will inject some moisture into the system as it races through.  It will be a progressive front and won't stall over us for too long so rain amounts, while respectable, will not be even close to the soaking numbers we got last weekend.  The front should be through by 1PM and NW winds will pick up in its wake...drying us out nicely and even supplying some sunny breaks later in the day.  The air following the front has had time to moderate when the storm was stagnant in the center of the nation so once again fairly mild air on both weekend days.  Saturday will be bright and Sunday will too for that matter but I am a little concerned that low clouds could plague us for a time on Sunday especially over SE Mass.

Another storm originating from the juicy Gulf of Mexico will make a run at us early next week.  Timing and strength are still in question but it does appear now that rain is likely on Monday and the system could stall into Tuesday as well.  Good news here is that the busiest travel day of the year...Wednesday...looks dry.

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea ice in October 2009 had the second-lowest ice extent for the month since 1979. Most of the lack of ice is being attributed to the very warm air mass over the area with most places registering temperatures as high as 11 degrees above normal. Some studies have in turn shown that the open water provides energy for storm formation which may in turn tear apart more of the ice sheet...interesting. During the month of October ice over the Arctic formed at a rate of nearly 37,000 square miles per day...remarkable when you consider that the Bay State is made up of a total of about 10,000 square miles. So everyday in October ice grew across the Arctic Sea at a rate of three times the size of MA! Check out some of the temperatures in Alaska this afternoon! Ice will REALLY form with temperatures like that! Usually in the weather world when Alaska is freezing we aren't! Case in point: Our amazing streak will last one more day with highs getting close to 60 on Thursday before showers arrive overnight and Friday. The weekend still looks dry!