Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the worst recession since the Great Depression is likely over, but UCLA’s quarterly Anderson Forecast is painting a much different picture of California’s economy.

While the state’s high-tech industries are rebounding, California will likely continue to struggle with recession for the next year. The report predicts the state’s staggering unemployment rate will actually jump from 11.9 percent to 12.2 percent before the end of 2009.

In addition to Sacramento’s budget woes, the city of Los Angeles is facing a $405 million deficit, which will likely trigger more government layoffs and furloughs as it tries to avoid running out of money by May.

Why is the world’s eighth largest economy so slow to pull out of this mess? According to the forecast, our reliance on the crippled housing and financial industries is keeping us inside the tunnel even though we can see the light from the other side.