John Ireland's Blog

My Predictions for the Upcoming Season

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:46:09 GMT

For the fourth year in a row, the NBA's Western Conference figures to be a monster. This could be another year when 50 wins just barely gets in. With that in mind, here's my projection of how the West will be won:

(1) Lakers (66-16)

The players think this team will be better than last year's NBA Championship team. That's a tall order. But barring a lot of injuries, I've got them at least a game better than a year ago, maybe a few games better. I don't think they'll win 70, but they'll flirt with it.

(2) San Antonio (56-26)

Richard Jefferson makes this a much better, must faster, Spurs team. If Duncan and Ginobli can stay healthy, they'll win the division--but just barely--over Dallas.

(3) Portland (55-27)

Not sure how Andre Miller is going to fit, but love the way the Blazers finished last year and they'll beat Denver for the division. For what it's worth, the Blazers are a better regular season team than a playoff team.

(4) Denver (54-28)

They'll be good, but I think they'll take a step back from last year. Too many combustible parts.

(5) Dallas (52-30)

This team will be better than most people think. Love the Marion pick-up, and like Carlisle back for another year. I could have them too low. Could finish as high as third.

(6) Utah (50-32)

Look at their roster. Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko, Williams...and Jerry Sloan coaching. You don't think this is a 50 win team? By the way, If they trade Boozer, the Jazz are out and Phoenix is in.

(7) New Orleans (49-33)

Chris Paul is too good for his team to miss the playoffs. I think.

(8) Clippers (48-34)

There. I said it. I might be the only one who goes on record with this pick, but I love Griffin--and Baron seems motivated.

The Rest:

9) Phoenix

10) Houston

11) Oklahoma City

12) Golden State

13) Minnesota

14) Memphis

15) Sacramento

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The East has more elite teams, but less depth. Here's how I see it:

(1) Cleveland (65-17)

LeBron has something to prove, which is a scary thought. Shaq won't make a huge difference, but he will help. They'll challenge the Lakers for best overall record, as will....

(2) Boston (64-18)

If the Celtics stay healthy, which is a big if, they are loaded. Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett and Sheed? Probably the best starting five in the conference. Injuries might de-rail the Celts, but if not, look out.

(3) Orlando (60-22)

Three teams with 60 wins? This is the year. They'll feel the loss of Hedo, but are still loaded.

(4) Chicago (47-35)

I think with Deng returning, and Rose in his second year, they get a lot better.

(5) Atlanta (46-36)

Don't like the coach, don't like them as a road team, but they're in the East.

(6) Washington (43-39)

Like the core of Jamison, Butler and Arenas--and have always been a fan of Flip Saunders. I must like him--they only won 19 games last season.

(7) Toronto (42-40)

Love Brian Colangelo...and the Hedo pick-up is worth a lot. Back into the playoffs for the Raptors.

(8) Philadelphia (39-43)

If Elton Brand comes back, don't see how they miss the playoffs. Of course assuming that Brand will stay healthy is probably really stupid.

The Rest:

9) Miami

10) Charlotte

11) Detroit

12) New York

13) Indiana

14) New Jersey

15) Milwaukee

Don't Sweat Preseason Losses

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:42:36 GMT

Before the Lakers first preseason game last week in Anaheim, I asked Phil Jackson a question that a lot of coaches would be offended by, but I knew he wouldn't:

"Do you care if you win these games?"

Jackson, who is always honest and refreshingly candid, basically said no.

"I think if you check my preseason record over the years," he said, "it's not very good."

He went on to say that he uses the preseason for a lot of things, and winning isn't on the top of that list. He wants to experiment with different line-ups, try some things defensively (mostly pressing), and reward some of the guys who won't be around when the season starts with a little playing time. Does that sound like a recipe for winning?

That's why I surprised when I was driving home from the Forum the other night after the Lakers fell to Golden State. If you listened to the callers to Brian Long's Lakers Line show, you would have thought it was a huge loss that threatened the Lakers chances to repeat. Trust me, it's not.

Two years ago, when the Lakers reached the NBA Finals before losing to Boston, they started the preseason with four straight losses and finished 3-6. Last year, when they won the title, they lost their first two preseason games, including a 27-point blowout at the hands of the Clippers.

I can't overstate how little the final results of these games matter. You can, however, gain some insight as to what the Lakers might be working on over the next few weeks.

For one, they have always had trouble with quick point guards. Tony Parker, Allen Iverson, Chris Paul, Jameer Nelson, Rajon Rondo, even Beno Udrih, have all had career nights against LA. The fact that Monta Ellis had 24 points in 29 minutes isn't good. And Kelenna Azubuike, who plays a similar game to Ellis, added 18 points on seven of nine shooting. The Lakers need to develop a "stopper" for guys like this, especially now that Derek Fisher is getting older. Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar are auditioning for this role, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ron Artest doesn't slide over and take these guys if the Lakers are really having trouble. Kobe is still probably the team's best on-the-ball defender, but he's only going to take those guys in the final minutes if the game is on the line.

The 25 turnovers are another red flag, but I think there might be an explanation for that. The Lakers are trying to jam the ball inside to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, especially against teams that don't have a true center (like the Warriors). Opponents are going to collapse on the big guys when the Lakers try that, and so LA is forced to make a choice. They either try to force the ball into the middle and risk a turnover, or they can shoot over the defense. They tried both at the Forum. Shooting three-pointers was a disaster--they made just two of 18. That forced the ball inside, and the end result was that the Warriors were ready. For those reasons, the 25 turnovers are something that I'm not all that worried about, especially if the Lakers are making their outside shots.

Most of all, the thing you should remember if you're a Lakers fan is that the guys who were on the court in the fourth quarter won't even be on the team when the regular season starts. That's when the real games are decided, and if they've got Kobe, Gasol, Artest, Odom and Fisher/Bynum on the court--I like their chances.

Off and Running

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 00:20:32 GMT

Here are my thoughts after watching game one of the Lakers pre-season:

--It would be difficult to imagine that this Lakers' team could be better than the team that won 65 games and the title a year ago, but they think that it is. I talked to several players who feel that with a healthy Andrew Bynum, a Shannon Brown for a full year, and the addition of Ron Artest, that this team can improve on a year ago.

--Although they gave up 101 points to the Warriors, the defense looked focused and reinvigorated. Artest is a bulldog, and Kobe is going to take advantage of the fact that he can "cheat" off of his man to get more steals. The Lakers had 16 steals, compared to the Warriors eight.

--The starters played more minutes than I thought they would. Bynum played a team-high 30 minutes, while Kobe played 25, and Artest 23. That's a good sign that if you have tickets to a pre-season game, you'll actually get to see the real Lakers for at least half of the game.

--Speaking of Bynum, he showed again how dominating he can be if he stays healthy. Other than Dwight Howard, he could be the best center in the league. Yao is out for the season, Shaq is older, and I don't think there's another true center that is better than Bynum can be. The problem is that he's suffered major injuries in each of the last two seasons. I would limit his minutes in both games and practices to prevent against that, but my guess is that the Lakers won't. I think they're going to play him a lot--especially early--to build up his conditioning.

--The battle for minutes will be fun to watch. Since Phil Jackson has already said he's hoping to play Derek Fisher 20-25 minutes per game this year, that leaves half of the game for somebody else. Against Golden State, Shannon Brown played 19:20 and Jordan Farmar played 18:25. They each scored 11 points, and both looked good. Farmar had six assists, and Brown brought down the house with a dunk he threw down over seven-footer Mikki Moore. I think Farmar is a better fit to run the second unit, but Brown is quickly becoming an energizer like Kurt Rambis was in the 80's. Like I said, this will be fun.

--And that's not the only battle for minutes. Sasha Vujacic is shooting better because he's being pushed by Adam Morrison in practice. Josh Powell looks more active, which should be a wake up call for Luke Walton. It might be the most well-rounded team I've covered in the 15 years I've been here.

On Friday, the Lakers go back to the Forum. Think that might bring back a few memories?

The Latest on Lamar Odom

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 05:03:53 GMT

I had several conversations today with people close to the Lakers, and asked each about the status of Lamar Odom. Here's what I learned:

--The best deal the Lakers had previously offered was Odom was for four years, $36 million. But the fourth year was a team option, that the Lakers had to either exercise, or buy Lamar out for $3 million. That means Odom turned down a guaranteed three year, $30 million contract.

That offer is no longer on the table, nor is any offer from the Lakers. I'm told that if Lamar called the team today and said he would accept these terms, he would most likely be told that the offer is no longer available. Again, this is my opinion based on multiple conversations. I have not spoken directly to Mitch Kupchak or Jerry Buss. If Lamar and Dr. Buss got together over dinner, maybe that original offer could resurface, but I'm told that's highly unlikely.

The common opinion seems to be that the Lakers made Odom an offer that was far above market value, and he turned it down. It's my feeling that the team no longer thinks he's worth a guaranteed $30 million in the current market. Unless somebody has a change of heart, Lamar most likely will have to take less to come back to the Lakers.

We had Jalen Rose on the show Wednesday, and he says that's exactly the way this is likely to play out. Jalen thinks the Lakers won't offer Lamar the original $10 million a year, but he will settle for less and return to LA. Under this scenario, his mistake of not taking the original offer could cost him millions. Of course, if he signs with another team, the most he's likely to get paid is the full mid-level exception of around $6 million a year. Jalen suggested that the new offer would probably be "around seven or eight million."

--By the way, the perception that Odom's agent, Jeff Schwartz, has been making this worse isn't necessarily true. I've had two different people tell me that Schwartz is a solid agent who has taken every offer seriously, and advised Lamar to do the same. I had one guy who told me, "I'm pretty sure Jeff advised him to take the deal...it's always the client's call."

--I said yesterday that I thought the percentage chance of Lamar returning to the Lakers was 70%. Everybody I talked to today said my number was too high, and "it's more like 50/50." I still think it's more than that, but not much. If I'm Lamar, the Lakers still give me the best chance to win, can pay me the most money, and allow me play in the city where I want to live. I know there are other considerations, but none more important than those three.

In other words, I still think he's coming back, but the situation has changed.

The Fans Get It--Beckham Never Has

Mon, 20 Jul 2009 18:44:28 GMT

The latest turn in the David Beckham saga has left me with a new respect for Los Angeles soccer fans.

Upon his return to the Home Depot Center last night, Beckham was booed loudly--and met with several signs calling him a "fraud." A lot of members of the media will call the fans' behavior disrespectful and uncalled for. I'm just not one of them.

Beckham started to lose me two years ago, when he stiffed the media after a large group of us showed up to cover a game he played in after traveling all night. Here's part of what I wrote then, and it's even more true today:

Most of the fans and all of the media who show up at Home Depot Center are there to see Beckham. His bosses at AEG are paying him millions (some say hundreds of millions) to be not only the face of the Galaxy, but the face of the whole sport. He seemed to understand that at his hugely successful introductory press conference, when he said he was here to take the sport of soccer to "a new level."

But after the game....a game that he had traveled eight time zones in one day to play, making him THE story, Beckham went out the back door. He pulled a no comment on a night that he was the only guy any one was interested in hearing from. This is on the heels of his "false start." He caused a huge splash when he announced he was coming, sold a bunch of tickets, and then sat out with an ankle injury for a month. He's selling soccer on borrowed time.

I've been a sportscaster for 22 years, and there's one thing I can always spot: when a guy gets it. Beckham doesn't get it.

Beckham is a huge star overseas and doesn't have to sell the sport--they're already sold. Any really good player knows this about Europe...it's where you go to make millions and become a rock star. Being sent to America for these guys is like being sent to the minors--they not only don't want to be here, they consider it a demotion.

AEG rolled the dice and thought, "we can change that perception. If we pay this guy even more millions, he'll become Wayne Gretzky....the pied piper of our sport."

But Gretzky was smart enough to know that he was the story, not the hockey game. He never missed a chance to sell it. Same thing with Magic Johnson in basketball and Tommy Lasorda in baseball. These guys knew that part of their job was get people talking--about the game, about why it might be important to fly across the world to play twice in two days, about why their teams needed them. Most of all, they were all smart enough to know that if they didn't talk, people wouldn't care at all about the subject. They knew that television stations would stop caring and send their crews home. They knew that newspapers would move the story from page one to page nine.

David Beckham hasn't figured this out yet. And the more I think about his background, the fact that he doesn't need any more money and he doesn't want the attention, the only reasonable conclusion is that AEG might have picked the wrong guy.

What stinks about that is that Beckham was brilliant at that introductory press conference. He gave his bosses every indication that he was worth the extra money, and that he would be the face of the sport. He's perfect for that on paper, because unlike Gretzky, Magic and Lasorda...he has cross-over appeal. When he talks, gossip magazines and sports networks show up. So does Entertainment Tonight. It's a dream scenario that AEG is paying to help develop.

When he was introduced, he said he was coming to help grow soccer here. He stayed at the Home Depot Center and talked to any one would listen that he would try to take soccer to the "next level."

Last night, he did. He helped take it down a notch.

If he wants to to be paid just to play soccer, go back to Europe. If he wants to be the face of the sport, he can't go out the back door. Gretzky, Magic, Lasorda and countless other Hall of Famers never even knew a back door existed.

After I wrote that, I was secretly hoping that Beckham would change his tune. He does have a charisma about him that makes you want to watch him play. But he never changed his tune.

Grant Wahl (a very respected writer for Sports Illustrated) has a new book out, The Beckham Experiment. In that book, he outlines the real truth about what happened with the Galaxy, and why Beckham hasn't lived up to his end of the deal. Landon Donovan, the Galaxy's best player, is very outspoken and should be commended for his candor.

Beckham actually made things worse when he tried to get out of his Galaxy deal and stay in Milan. To fans in LA, that was an obvious snub that I'm sure Beckham thought wouldn't have any impact. But last night, the soccer fans joined together and told Beckham that he has a tired act.

For that, the fans should be proud of themselves--no matter what the media says.

The next move here belongs to Beckham. He can do what he did last night and say things like "you can't make everybody happy." Or he can actually try to make somebody--anybody--happy. He's still a big enough star that if he reached out to the city, we would all cover it from top to bottom. My guess is that every show in town--including mine--will ask Beckham to come on this week to give the fans his side of the story.

Anybody want to bet me that he doesn't come on, with anybody?

Right now, "The Beckham Experiment" is officially a disaster. Only he can can change the way it ends.

Odom is Underestimating Jerry Buss

Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:56:17 GMT

If he isn't careful, Lamar Odom is about to find out the same thing that Gary Payton, Shaquille O'Neal and Trevor Ariza found out the hard way.

You can't "leverage" Jerry Buss.

Odom and his agent, Jeff Schwartz, are looking around at the marketplace and figure that they are worth at least what Ben Gordon (five years, $55 million) and Hedo Turkoglu (five years, $53 million) are worth. They want at least five years, $50 million for Lamar. While that makes sense to most people, Jerry Buss isn't most people. And Buss is the only person who matters now.

Buss wants to keep Odom, and made him several offers to try and do so. According to Brad Turner of the LA Times, Buss most recently offered a deal for $9 million a season for four years at $36 million, or $10 million a season over three years for a total of $30 million.

But Odom and Schwartz didn't even respond--and now Buss has pulled all offers.

If you think Buss won't walk away, you're wrong. Remember, this is a guy who traded Shaq after making the Finals four out of five years and winning three times. Above all else, he's a gambler who knows numbers. He's reached his limit and is ready to walk away.

To a lot of Lakers' fans, that is infuriating. They think the team needs Odom to continue to win championships, and that Buss should simply meet his demands. But I've been around the team for years, and I can't state this strongly enough: when Buss makes up his mind, he almost never goes back (the re-hiring of Phil Jackson is the only time I can think of). As much as I like Lamar--and he's a great player and an even better guy--he has to realize that now is the time for him to take one of those deals.

If Odom really wants to play for the Lakers, he should take a page from A-Rod and call Buss directly. When Scott Boras wasn't getting anywhere with the Yankees a few years ago, Alex Rodriguez picked up the phone and told the team, "I want to play for you. Let's work out the numbers between us and let Scott handle the small details." That's the play for Odom now.

A lot of times in sports, no matter how much the team likes the player (and the Lakers love Odom and his game), it becomes a business decision. And Lamar Odom better hope that Jerry Buss hasn't already made up his mind.

Hope for the Clippers?

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 04:01:00 GMT

As I write this on Monday night, there are two big NBA stories swirling around Los Angeles: the Clippers are in serious talks with Allen Iverson, and the Lakers are having trouble signing Lamar Odom.

Should these two stories break a certain way, the Clippers would become relevant in Los Angeles, almost overnight.

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the Clippers sign Iverson. A lot of people think he's finished, but I'm not one of them. He's a career 27 points a game scorer (30 per game in the playoffs), who has appeared in the last ten NBA All Star games. You simply cannot guard him with one player--he'll torch whoever it is. I covered a game in Denver in December of 2007 and watched Iverson score 51 points against the Lakers (49 in the first three quarters). Last November, Iverson scored 25 points in leading the Pistons past the Lakers, handing LA its' first loss of the year. He did all of this over the last 20 months, and I'm convinced he has a lot left in the tank.

At the same time, let's say that Mitch Kupchak isn't bluffing and that the Lakers pass on signing Odom. Here's what Elliot Teaford from the LA Daily News wrote on Monday night:

Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak said tonight he was "not as hopeful" of re-signing unrestricted free agent Lamar Odom "as I was Friday." Asked why, Kupchak said, "It's just a feeling you get. You have conversations with the player's representative and, right now, I'm not sure we're on the same page."

Asked during halftime of the Lakers-Clippers summer league game, if he was the point of throwing up his hands in frustration, Kupchak said, "Perhaps."

Kupchak said he had no further plans to talk with Odom's agent, Jeff Schwartz.

"I understand it's a process. I am surprised it's taken us so long to get to this point."

It's believed the Lakers have offered Odom a deal of more than $8 million per season. It's also believed that there are no other teams currently courting Odom, who made $11.4 million last season in the final year of a six-season deal he signed with Miami.

So let's say the Lakers don't sign Odom. That would leave the following line-ups on opening day of next season:

LAKERS

Starters: Kobe, Fisher, Bynum, Artest, Gasol.

Bench: Farmar, Brown, Powell, Mbenga

CLIPPERS:

Starters: B. Davis, Iverson, Kaman, Camby, Griffin

Bench: Gordon, Thornton, D. Jordan, M. Taylor, R. Davis

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Wouldn't you at least watch that game? A year ago, the Clippers couldn't even compete with the Lakers, and now they would put up a fight. Even better, when teams like Denver, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and New Orleans came to town--you would actually want to go to Staples to see who would win. And I'm talking about the Clippers here.

If they sign Iverson, I think they make the playoffs. Especially if Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady don't show up in Houston, and Carlos Boozer leaves Utah. I would bet on it.

Of course, since we're talking about the Clippers here, they could always screw this up. But it's fun to think about, isn't it?

ARTEST TOLD KOBE HE WAS COMING

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:49:25 GMT

After Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest got into that "war of words" in March back in Houston, I asked Kobe what he really thought of Artest.

"We're friends," Kobe said, "I like him a lot--like his game--always have."

Then he told me a story that makes today's news--Artest is supposedly on his way to LA for three years, $18 million--very likely to happen.

Kobe said that after the Lakers lost game six of the '08 NBA Finals in Boston by 39 points, he was alone in the shower, just fuming. He heard somebody walk in and assumed it was one of his teammates, or maybe a staff member. Instead, he looked up, and it was Ron Artest (to this day, Kobe has no idea how Artest got into the locker room).

"I want to come help you," Artest said. "If I can, I'm going to find a way to come to LA and give you the help you need to win a title."

Kobe didn't think much of it, especially since Artest still had a year left on his deal with the Rockets, and that the Lakers were returning an entire team that had just won the Western Conference. Plus, players talk like that a lot, and it's just talk. But it struck Kobe as a nice gesture, especially since he had just been hammered by the Celtics and nobody was saying much of anything. Kobe told me that the perception a lot of people have of Artest is wrong.

"He competes....every night, every play," Kobe said. "I've known him since high school and he's always been like that."

Kobe found it strange that some people in the media were portraying he and Artest as enemies.

"He wants to win as much as I do...and I respect him--a lot."

When you consider that Artest and Lamar Odom grew up playing together in New York, this move makes a ton of sense. Artest gets to play with two good friends, for a coach that has always spoken highly of him.

Over the years, I've often asked Phil Jackson specifically about Artest's "colorful" nature. Phil never takes the bait, always shifting the conversation to something about how competitive Artest always is. He speaks of Artest the same way he speaks of Dennis Rodman. You'll rarely hear Phil comment on how weird Rodman was, just that he adjusted to the team culture once he came to town. I imagine that if the Artest deal goes through, he'll treat Ron much the same way.

By the way, if the rumored deal was to go through, it leaves the Lakers with even more money to keep Odom. Think about this: they would be getting Artest for less money than Charlie Villanueva just signed for in Detroit. Trust me, there isn't anybody who knows basketball who would rather have Villanueva than Artest. The only downside to this deal is that the it leaves no room on the roster for Trevor Ariza, who was been fantastic in his time with the Lakers. But truth be told, Ariza and Artest play the same position, and Ariza didn't want to play for that money. ESPN is already reporting that Ariza has agreed to sign in Houston to replace Artest.

Final note: none of this is done. League rules don't allow any players to sign free agent contracts until next week, and a lot can happen between now and then. But based on what I know about Artest and the way he feels about the Lakers, I'd say it's more likely to happen than not.

It's Over

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 06:00:17 GMT

So after eight long months of wondering, the Lakers answered all questions and are the 2009 NBA Champions.

They're going to take some time to enjoy this, especially guys like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, who played straight through last year's NBA Finals--then the Olympics--into this year's finals. As a matter of fact, Kobe played more games surrounding an Olympics than any player ever, and will most likely shut down for a few weeks.

But the Lakers could have two big questions to answer in this off season, and those answers won't come easy:

--What will they do if Phil Jackson retires? I think it's unlikely, but there's no question that it's possible. Phil has some health issues that make it impossible to assume he's automatically coming back. If he leaves, deciding who will replace him would be one of the biggest decisions of this decade. The short list would include current assistants Kurt Rambis and Brian Shaw, along with former Laker and current Hornets coach, Byron Scott. My guess? Phil returns for one more season, and then he's done--but it's just a guess.

--If they can only afford to keep one free agent, should it be Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza? Before the playoffs, I think Odom was kind of an obvious answer. But after seeing Ariza's performance in both the Western Conference Finals against Denver, and the Finals against Orlando, this decision is anything but a slam dunk. Odom is bigger, more versatile, and a better rebounder and scorer. But Ariza is a better defender, a better shooter, and is younger. I would probably keep Odom, but that just me. What I thinking might happen (and I realize this could be wishful thinking) is that both Odom and Ariza will take less money to stay in LA. Any time a player is asked to leave millions on the table, it usually doesn't work out. But both guys say their open to it.

Other questions will arise, but for the most part, the future for the Lakers looks as bright as any team in the NBA. The question most of the reporters at the finals was asking wasn't if the Lakers might win one more title, but how many.

Orlando Gives the Lakers a Gift

Fri, 12 Jun 2009 06:47:09 GMT

The Lakers won game four in Orlando, and will now probably win their 15th championship. Trevor Ariza was fantastic, and I couldn't be happier for Derek Fisher, who was the hero.

But Orlando had this game, and they did several things late that proved they deserved to lose.

With :11 seconds to go, the Magic mishandled the game in almost every possible way. Let's review:

--They were up by three, with the ball. They decided to pass it to Dwight Howard, who at the time, was the worst free throw shooter they had on the court. Kobe Bryant tackled Howard, who was awarded two free throws. Howard only needed to make one and the Lakers were dead, but he missed both shots.

--The Lakers called time out and elected to inbound the ball in front of their own bench, at three- quarter court, because they were convinced Orlando was going to foul--and they thought they could maybe "run away' from the foul.

--Orlando then made their biggest mistake: they tried to press the Lakers full court, and they double teamed Kobe Bryant when he caught the ball. Kobe immediately passed it to Trevor Ariza at half court, who then passed it to Derek Fisher. The reason the double-team was deadly is that now the Lakers had a three-on-three on the other end.

--Fisher then simply pulled up and buried a three to tie the game. At the time he shot the ball, two of the Magic players (Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis) were standing inside the three-point line, guarding the other two Lakers who had gone inside.

If you've followed me over the years, you know this is my absolute pet peeve in basketball. I will now be obnoxious and type in all caps what is so obvious, I can't believe I have to write this every year:

WHEN ONE TEAM IS AHEAD BY THREE POINTS AT THE END OF A GAME, THE ONLY THING THAT CAN HURT THEM IS A THREE-POINTER. THERE IS NO NEED TO PLAY DEFENSE ON ANYBODY WHO ISN'T A THREE-POINT THREAT. A TWO-POINT SHOT CAN'T TIE OR BEAT YOU, AND IT ACTUALLY GIVES YOU THE BALL BACK WITH A ONE POINT LEAD.

If I'm Orlando, I foul right away and make the Lakers shoot two free throws. But after the game, Stan Van Gundy said he was worried that his team was so bad from the free throw line, that it might come back to bite him. If the Lakers make their two, they could foul and Orlando could miss, allowing the Lakers a chance to win. So, for the sake of argument, let's side with Stan.

But even if you decide not to foul, how in the world can you defend that play the way Orlando did?

By double-teaming Kobe on the inbounds play, you now have two of your defenders 70 feet away from the basket, guarding someone who isn't going to shoot from there.

Even worse, how could Howard and Lewis go inside the three-point line? If any Lakers player crossed that line, you should leave him alone...the two-pointer can't hurt you.

So that leaves Jameer Nelson guarding Fisher. Again, the only thing that can hurt you is a three. Nelson backed up and gave him space! For what? He has to take a three...why are you backing up?

It was as if the Magic were making a video on how not to defend the end of a game--a stunning brain cramp that ended their title hopes.

My guess is that both teams will be polite and say all of the right things that Fisher simply made a great shot. But he never should have had the chance.