Beyond The Forecast

Weekend & Beyond...

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:31:43 GMT

Impressive downpours lighting up the radar this AM...they'll be gone by late morning...nice, but breezy afternoon. As far as the weekend goes I like both days a lot...Saturday especially! Mostly sunny and mild again with highs 55-60 degrees, can't beat it for outdoor fun. Sunday will be a little cooler based on a NE wind direction so highs will cap out in the lower 50s. The day will start out sunny but some low stratocumulus may form in the afternoon as the NE breeze kicks in...dry though!

A weaker low will approach on Monday starting the holiday week with some rain which may linger into Tuesday. Tuesday evening and Wednesday...big travel days...look fine and dry.

We have been entrenched in a warmer than normal ridging pattern most of this month. There is some model consistency now regarding an approaching trough for later next week. As it approaches late on Thanksgiving Day it will be trying to spin up an ocean low. However, as of now, the baroclinic zone appears to be setting up too far offshore and the trough appears progressive and not likely to set up shop on the East Coast for an extended period. So if a low does develop it may just be too far away and fairly fast moving. We will be keeping an eye on whether or not the trough trends going negative, slowing a developing system down and inching closer to us...time will tell.

Also, both the GFS and more so the Euro are now indicating the ridge trend in the east to be tough to break completely down...typical in an El Nino pattern. Thus, it appears that while we'll have colder outbreaks as we turn the calendar there will also be mild days too. Also something we are eyeing closely.

Have a good weekend all!

What's Your Guess?

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:57:19 GMT

We are starting our annual snowfall contest...guess how much snow will be measured this year at Logan Airport and you could win a season pass to Mt. Wachusett! Put in your guess on the website here, or do it in person at the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo this weekend!

A cut-off low in the Midwest is finally starting to open up and move to the Northeast. Driven by and intensifying 300mb jet and a potent 500mb vort max this system, may look ragged now, will actually strengthen as it approaches us. The center of the storm will still roll up to our west then north pushing a front through New England tomorrow midday. That front will have some juice to work with as a flare up of showers off of the Carolina's will inject some moisture into the system as it races through. It will be a progressive front and won't stall over us for too long so rain amounts, while respectable, will not be even close to the soaking numbers we got last weekend. The front should be through by 1PM and NW winds will pick up in its wake...drying us out nicely and even supplying some sunny breaks later in the day. The air following the front has had time to moderate when the storm was stagnant in the center of the nation so once again fairly mild air on both weekend days. Saturday will be bright and Sunday will too for that matter but I am a little concerned that low clouds could plague us for a time on Sunday especially over SE Mass.

Another storm originating from the juicy Gulf of Mexico will make a run at us early next week. Timing and strength are still in question but it does appear now that rain is likely on Monday and the system could stall into Tuesday as well. Good news here is that the busiest travel day of the year...Wednesday...looks dry.

Still Waiting...

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:01:11 GMT

Fun Facts:

1) The date of Boston's average first freeze has come and gone...that day was November 7th. Tonight will be another opportunity to drop down to the freezing mark of 32 degrees as the triples c's will be with us (clear, calm & cold). Even though the burbs will be in the 20s and maybe even a few upper teens tomorrow morning and again on Thursday morning, the heat island effect will likely prevent temps at Logan from getting down to 32...thus, the wait will go on.

2) Today's high will be more November-like...near 50...but the average temp in Boston this month is running nearly 3 degrees above normal...and milder than normal air is expected through the weekend.

3) Despite the soaker over the weekend, precip amounts are running about a half inch below normal.

4) Lastly, the month of November averages 1.3" of Snow...we've had none. (We did have measurable snow back in October...0.1" on the 18th)

Quiet Times...

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:21:24 GMT

Stagnant flow across the US this week bodes well for us. A mature cyclone in the Midwest is "cut-off" from the westerlies and will spin for days out there. High pressure from Southern Canada will settle into the Northeast instead. This means days of sunshine this week. With the airmass briefly chilly tomorrow temps may be a bit below normal but the air will moderate nicely by the end of the week and once again another November week that will average out above normal for temps.

So, will this pattern breakdown? In the short term, the answer is no. A large Aleutian Low in the Pacific, typical in an El Nino pattern, is creating trofiness in the West and promotes ridging in the East. There are, however, some indications that a pattern shift will occur late in the month chilling us down as we turn the calender to December. So stay tunes Winter lovers...there is some hope down the line for you. For now though warm weather lovers (like myself) are more than happy!

Here She Comes...

Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:34:21 GMT

Ida remnants are spreading north...finally. Rain is closing in on the South Coast and the afternoon will be wet and quite windy too. The rain will overspread the rest of the region from south to north tonight and periods of rain will continue through all of tomorrow. Some of the rain will be heavy with amounts up to 3" possible. Widespread flooding isn't a concern at the moment but poor drainage flooding is likely in spots where storm drains get clogged up with leaves.

Wind will continue to ramp up today maxing out tomorrow morning with potential gusts to 50 mph or higher over SE Mass (we have already seen gusts to 40 mph). Consequently, the NWS has a Wind Advisory in place through 10AM tomorrow for the Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket in Massachusetts and Block Island in Rhode Island.

During this timeframe we are also a little concerned about beach erosion or minor coastal flooding. Waves will grow to over 10 feet the persistent easterly fetch will push water toward the beaches and tides are already running astronomically high. At the moment there isn't an advisory from the NWS for coastal flooding but the situation will be monitored very closely through the next several high tide cycles.

The storm finally gets that kick Sunday afternoon and high pressure will be building back in for a good chunk of next week. Hard to believe but at the moment it appears like another extended sunny / dry stretch!

Have a good weekend all...

High Hangs On...For Now...

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:57:10 GMT

Sorry about not getting back to you folks on here. To be honest, when I get home I have very few baby free minutes and if I get a break it isn't logging on to the internet...it's cleaning bottles and getting the next feeds prepared or doing laundry or restocking the changing areas or trying to get some food in my stomach before the squawking starts again or giving my wife a much needed break...it's relentless, this is my life for the next few months. Weather isn't just my job it's my hobby and unfortunately I only get to follow it when I'm at work now. So, again, I apologize for not being a regular participant lately. If you've called me out on here please don't take offense if I haven't replied...I simply didn't see it...it's just my life at the moment. I hope you all understand.

As far as the Winter goes Terry (WX EP) summed it up very nicely. There are so many variables that go into long range forecasting which is why they are seldom accurate. I mean you can get in the same ballpark but to be on the money is, for the most part, a crap shoot...just look at the hurricane forecasts issued every year. El Nino is stronger than anticipated and will take time to break down so I expect numerous storms to roll out of the Plains and track to our West, over us or redevelop on the Coast. All scenarios allow for an influx of milder air limiting pure snow events. Thus, I would also go for snowfall amounts less than last year around 28-32" in Boston. (Keep in mind, last December was a very snowy one, contributing to an above average year for snowfall. Even though El Nino should limit December snowfall it doesn't mean we can't make up the difference on the back end of the Winter getting the seasonal number back up close to normal or slightly over. Just a little food for thought.) Lastly, with the infux of mild air into these storms, I would expect an increase in mixing and or icing events this Winter season. Bummer...even though I'm a fan of Summer I'd much rather have pure snow events over messy mixes and I'm sure most of you would too! Those are my initial thoughts on the upcoming Winter season if I read (ha, that implies that I have leisure time to read right now) or see something I'll pass it along to you.

Back to the here and now...looks like the clouds win out and some won't see the sun until late Sunday or even Monday! Ida's remnants are so large that the clouds fan out along the entire East Coast. Therefore skies, today, will remain mostly cloudy unless you are headed or live in Northern New England where the cirrus canopy will be thin enough for sunshine to get through. High pressure which has kept the rain at bay and to our south all week will shift into the Canadian Maritimes tomorrow allowing a path for the rain to travel up into New England. Rain will arrive over SE Mass tomorrow afternoon and evening and then overspread the rest of the area Friday night. This has been a slow moving system and will continue to be as steering winds have shifted north of the border so rain will continue through Saturday too and amounts could get close to 2 inches. The storm won't get kicked out until midday Sunday, then improvements arrive. This won't be a gentile rain...instead a windswept one. Winds will be an issue along the South Coast, Cape and Islands where gusts could exceed 40 mph out of the NE. Persistent NE winds, growing surf and already astronomically high tides could also lead to some minor beach erosion or coastal flooding Friday and Saturday.

As always, thanks for participating on our blog...I'll do my best to check it more frequently or as Lila and Brody permit! BTW, they are 7 weeks old and have both almost doubled their weight, so they are doing well. Mom and Dad are struggling however because they just don't go longer than 2-3 hours between feedings. People tell us to give them some rice cereal and that should keep them content a little longer so I think we'll try that. Others have also told us that the 3 month mark is a major sleeping milestone and it seems to get better after that...we are cautiously optimistic! If you have any suggestions, please, please, please let me know...we're pretty much ready to try anything!!!

Have a good day.

The Great Debate...

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:38:13 GMT

Terry (WX EP) and I have been debating whether or not we'll see sun this week. The cloud shield from Ida's remnants have made it all the way up into New England. With the storm expected to stall off the East Coast through the weekend, it's going to be tough to get any sun in here now. With strong high pressure to our north, the northwestern suburbs of Boston will be the brightest with just partly sunny skies over the city tomorrow. South and east of Boston look for the clouds to be thickest, inhibiting sunshine through the remainder of the week!

With Ida not getting that kick out to sea until Sunday now, the weekend is looking partially wet. As the high shifts east into Canada steering currents of air will push rain our way and Saturday now looks wet all day...rain may even get into the South Coast late Friday.

Latest on Ida...

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 12:46:57 GMT

Ida is moving up Mobile Bay as it continues to weaken. Winds are now down around 45 mph but it is still capable of producing flooding rain and damaging wind gusts. Ida is still expected to spin through the SE US for the next few days as it remains cut-off from the westerlies or any steering currents. The storm, even though it will become extra-tropical, will still be a large storm when it emerges on the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. Heavy rain and strong gusty winds will plague the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast, but strong surface high pressure will keep us dry for the remainder of the work week.

Over the weekend, believe it or not, the storm will still be spinning out in the Atlantic...waiting for something to "kick" it out to sea. That something is a weakening coldfront...it's not much but just enough to knock down the ridge and get more of the westerlies to the East Coast to push the remains of Ida farther out into the Atlantic Ocean. However, because Ida now appears to hang around into the weekend, as the storm matures it will enlargen and the periphery of the storm may graze us with a little moisture. Therefore, there is now a chance for showers Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Changes on the Way...

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:11:42 GMT

Another gorgeous day setting up with Indian Summer conditions prevailing. Records are a bit of a stretch but 70 degrees is not! Enjoy because a coldfront located in the Midwest is marching eastbound. It is expected to pass on through midday tomorrow. There won't be any showers, just some clouds...but certainly colder temps for the mid and second half of the week. Temps won't be alarming cold but noticeable especially when compared to the balmy conditions the last few days.

Of greater interest is Hurricane Ida...barely a hurricane at the moment in the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is expected to make landfall in Alabama or Florida late tonight or tomorrow morning. While there will be wind damage, the Gulf Coast will be spared devastation due to the weakening storm. Heavy rain will likely lead to flooding. After Ida makes landfall the storm will become extra-tropical...an ordinary storm...but a strong one as it travels through the SE US toward the Carolinas. It will then move out over water again but restrengthening into a tropical system is unlikely as water temps have cooled off since their late summer highs and more importantly it will have broad upper level support by then. Still, the storm will be a strong cyclone capable of gusty winds, heavy rain and growing surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The million dollar question is where will that stuff occur?

Well the answer appears to be just south of us in the Mid-Atlantic. The vort max driving the coldfront through tomorrow will drive south and east breaking down the ridge in place over the Eastern US to some extent...just enough to stear the decaying Hurricane to the south and then east of us as the Westerlies briefly return in the wake of the vort max to keep the storm out of New England. So far now we go with a dry forecast for the week. Despite the lack of rain, we will still be in the cyclonic wind field with, sometimes gusty, NE winds keeping temps at or slightly below normal levels for the entire second half of the week.

What a Weekend...

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:11:54 GMT

The large ocean storm developed very far away from us...as far as precip goes we just got grazed with some rain and snow showers. The wind however is going to be strong enough to be annoying. Gusts will exceed 30 mph and with temps in the 30s this morning it will feel more like 20s out there. The storm will continue to chug away from us this afternoon and the winds will relax a bit. Temps will still struggle into the upper 40s this afternoon despite bright sunshine.

There isn't much bad to say about the weekend. It's been a while since we have said that BOTH weekend days are going to be great...so I'm happy to pass it along! Saturday will be seasonably cool with temps climbing into the lower 50s but the wind won't be that bad and I'd be shocked to see any clouds...great Autumn day!

Sunday's my pick of the weekend...temps will be much warmer reaching 60 degrees in the afternoon on a warm SW wind. Again few if any clouds will be present and if there are any they will be high thin cirrus clouds responding to the warming airmass aloft.

That warming airmass really throws us a treat early next week. With ridging up and down the East Coast temps aloft will be warm enough to support 70 degrees on both Monday and Tuesday. The records are a reach on both days in Boston. Monday's record is 74 degrees set back in 1945 and Tuesday's record is 78 degrees set back in 1931...probably out of reach. Still it will feel plenty warm enough!

By the way...Boston's average date of first frost is November 7th and we are still waiting for our first frost of the season at Logan. Tonight could be that night...temps in the burbs will dip into the 20s while over at Logan I am expecting lower 30s...32,33,34...somewhere in that ballpark. So if it happens tonight, it will be right on the money as far as the date goes...kind of interesting.

Lastly, the next two weeks are expected to be above normal for temps and below normal for precip according to the CPC...at the moment doesn't appear that any snowstorms are in the cards...hang in there...

Have a great weekend every one!