Beyond The Forecast

Gloomy Days Coming

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:32:54 GMT

After yesterday's 67 degrees, the temperature maxxed out at 58 at 3:25pm today in Boston which is still 8 degrees above the average for November 21. A year ago, we were experiencing mid-winter cold over a 5-day period from the 19th through the 23rd with respective high temperatures at only 33, 35, 35, 29 and 33! Although the next few days will be cooler than the last few, it will likely be Saturday before it turns much colder. Tomorrow's lower 50s will be followed by near or just under 50 degrees through much of the upcoming week thanks to several, cloudy, gloomy, damp days. With a ridge of high pressure setting up just to our north and a wave or two of low pressure emerging from the Gulf of Mexico then running out underneath New England, the stage is primed for some periodic to occasional mist and light rain Monday and Wednesday with some spells of heavier rain on Tuesday. The northeasterly wind will become raw and brisk and gustiest up to 30 mph or so later Monday and Tuesday over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There could be a break on Thanksgiving Day when splashes of sunshine could send it up to the middle 50s but the next weathermaker will arrive with rain and showers on Friday. As the storm departs, the gates will open to release some very cold air from Canada next weekend.

At this time, no snowstorms are projected for the travelers during this upcoming holiday week but there could be some snow flurries mainly over the hills next Saturday with some accumulating snow over the Green Mountains and northern White Mountains. Speaking of snow, check out the Boston Ski & Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston. The 4-day event concludes tomorrow. I was there at the WBZ Booth from noon to 8pm today and had the pleasure of meeting many great people. Stop by tomorrow and have your picture taken with Sarah Wroblewski. She will be on hand from 11am to 3pm. While there, submit your guess in the WBZ Snowfall Contest or you can enter right here on this web site.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

Is it November?

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:48:52 GMT

Average November temperatures range from the upper 50s in the beginning of the month to the upper 40s by the end of the month. As the mercury hit 67 degrees yesterday it made me question how warm has this month been so far? 11 out of the past 20 days this month have seen either normal or above normal with respect to temperatures. Now 6 of those 11 days have seen the mercury in the 60s! The good news is that the mild conditions will continue into the weekend. Although we won’t hit the upper 60s like we did in some areas yesterday, we’ll still see temperatures about 10 degrees above the normal.

As high and mid level clouds filter the sunshine at times today, temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be light out of the west as high pressure ridges into the region from the west. Winds will gradually turn northward overnight as skies become clear. Temperatures will fall back to the 30s overnight, which is not unusual for this time of year, however Boston may stay near 40 degrees. Lucky for us, high pressure continues to dominate the weather tomorrow! It will be another bright day, but as the dome of high pressure moves over northern New England, northeasterly winds will be over the area, leading to the development of perhaps a few more clouds in southeastern areas. It will also be slightly cooler than today with highs in the lower 50s…but hey…that is still above normal! The coolest conditions tomorrow will be along the immediate coast.

Got Plans??? Well some of you might be taking advantage of the mild and dry conditions this weekend by putting up your outdoor holiday lights, but if you want to think snow….head to the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston! Barry Burbank will be there from 11 AM to 6 PM TODAY and I will be there from 11 AM to 3 PM tomorrow! Have a great weekend everyone!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston/ 

Frozen 49th State...

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:14:47 GMT

Alaska is freezing...literally. Bettles, Alaska reported a low temperature this morning of nearly 50 degrees below zero...that's with NO wind, thank you very much, so there was no wind chill. The high there today didn't even make it to -35! That's cold folks..and there the cold will remain..at least for now. The way the weather patterns usually works is that when things are bitterly cold in Alaska things are pretty comfortable/warm here in New England...this is a perfect example of that. There are times when that is not true but due to the wavelengths of the troughs and ridges this is typcially the case. A small piece of this frigid air will break free and drop south into Central Canada next week...the air will then modify as it continues its trek to the east. We will see some chilly weather here by next weekend, but certainly not anything that cold, in fact, most areas will still see highs in the 40s. This is the warmest November here in 3 years and that mild air will linger into next week with highs Saturday expected to hit 60 and then remain in the 50s right through Thanksgiving..before that cooldown next weekend.

Arctic Sea Ice

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:41:13 GMT

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea ice in October 2009 had the second-lowest ice extent for the month since 1979. Most of the lack of ice is being attributed to the very warm air mass over the area with most places registering temperatures as high as 11 degrees above normal. Some studies have in turn shown that the open water provides energy for storm formation which may in turn tear apart more of the ice sheet...interesting. During the month of October ice over the Arctic formed at a rate of nearly 37,000 square miles per day...remarkable when you consider that the Bay State is made up of a total of about 10,000 square miles. So everyday in October ice grew across the Arctic Sea at a rate of three times the size of MA! Check out some of the temperatures in Alaska this afternoon! Ice will REALLY form with temperatures like that! Usually in the weather world when Alaska is freezing we aren't! Case in point: Our amazing streak will last one more day with highs getting close to 60 on Thursday before showers arrive overnight and Friday. The weekend still looks dry!

November Bliss

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:17:12 GMT

So far this has been a November to remember...sure we had a big soaker on Saturday, but for the most part this normally cloudy and cool month has actually turned out to be quite pleasant! It's about to get even better with temperatures rising back into to near 60 by Thursday! The other good news is that the weekend storm which looked like it would give us a wet Sunday is now tracking further south and may just hold off until either Monday or Tuesday. Todd mentioned below that the average temperature so far this month is 3 degrees warmer than normal, the last time we saw such a warm November was 3 years ago. November 2006 ended up over 4 degrees warmer than normal but it was also wet with nearly six inches of rain! So as Thanksgiving draws near things seem pretty quiet and mild and there appears to be no major change to that...sure it will cool down from time to time...but there are no signs of any Arctic invasions anywhere in the US right into next week!

Leonids

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:28:20 GMT

The annual meteor shower peaks after midnight tonight and early Tuesday and with clear skies and no moonlight, due to the new moon, conditions should be perfect for viewing. Many areas should see as many as 20 to 30 per hour...check out the top ten facts about the Leonid meteors and enjoy the show!

Uneventful Week Ahead

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:32:18 GMT

After yesterday's monsoonal conditions, the atmosphere dried out just enough to enable some sunshine to break through many areas this afternoon. As a result, temperatures spiked into the lower to middle 60s. It will turn out being the warmest day of the week because cooler air will drain into the region behind a departing weak cold front early tomorrow. Before its arrival, the residual moist air will condense out into fog for many locations. Exercise caution while driving into the night. Drier air may begin to gobble up the fog during or, in some cases, prior to the morning commute hours. Varying amounts of cloudiness above the groundfog will be thinning and decreasing so tomorrow will turn out much sunnier with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 as a drying northwesterly wind freshens to 10-20 mph.

The steering currents will propel a sprawling zone of high air pressure from the Great Lakes into New England as the week progresses. The center of the high pressure will be poised right over us Wednesday into Thursday. Consequently, it will be a perfect setup for premium radiational cooling conditions. Expect suburban lows in the lower to middle 20s late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and middle to upper 50s on Thursday. Plan on a nippy breeze Tuesday with light wind thereafter through Thursday. The next minor frontal boundary will introduce clouds Thursday night with a period of showers on Friday. This will not be a heavy rainmaker. Partly sunny weather should return for next weekend.

The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks early Tuesday morning. With no moonlight and a clear sky, we should have optimum conditions for viewing the anticipated 20 to 30 "shooting stars" per hour in the best viewing period from 1-5am.

Make it a good week and GO PATS!

Murky to Marvelous

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:40:59 GMT

It’s a cloudy, murky start to the day with areas of fog and patchy drizzle. We’ll find the risk of a spot shower or patch of drizzle through the morning hours. It can only get better from here. By the afternoon drier conditions will arrive, although along the coast some mist may continue. Cloudy skies will eventually begin to break across western MA through the afternoon and breaks of sunshine will develop from west to east, clearing out completely overnight. Highs will be above normal for this time of year getting into the upper 50s to low 60s, perhaps milder on the Cape, as temps are already in the low 60s. However, I believe the clouds will hang tough there today, so not much budge in the temperatures are expected.

Last year on this day the mercury hit 70 degrees. Then…later in the week temperatures dropped well below normal and we were stuck in the 30s for a few days. Lucky for us…that pattern is not setting up this year. Temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s under brighter skies. High pressure will then move overhead, bringing slightly cooler air, but really only dropping temperatures back to near normal. With that area of high pressure… lots of sunshine! It’s a good time to be in New England! Enjoy your Sunday everyone and GO PATS!

ALSO…since most comments on recent blogs have been about an extended winter forecast, what do you think about this article? Do you think this is right? I would love to hear your thoughts!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091111/ts_afp/chinaweathersnow/print

One other thing to note…The Boston Globe Ski & Snowboard Expo is this Thursday, November 19^th through Sunday, November 22, 2009. Each member of the weather team will be making an appearance at some point or another. I’ll be there next Sunday, so make plans and head to the expo and come by the WBZ traveling weather center and say hi! I would love to meet you! For more information click the link below!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston

It Gets Better... Much Better

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:38:16 GMT

It has been a soggy Saturday. The rain has varied from drizzle to downpours and, according to our special WBZ Weather Watchers, NWS Skywarn Spotters and over 125 stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network, has amounted to 1.2 to 3.8 inches in the viewing range of WBZ. Copious amounts in the range of 4 to 5.5 inches drenched southern and central Maine resulting in stream and river flooding. Otherwise, ponding of roadways in poor drainage locations was the main problem in today's storm over southern New England. There has been little wind inland but a gustier onshore flow up to 20-35 mph occurred over southeastern Massachusetts. Seas have been rough thanks to the wind over the ocean and the higher waves generated by the storm which has been pounding the Mid-Atlantic Coast much of the week. This system has weakened significantly and is centered hundreds and hundreds of miles south of New England. It is settling southeastward. Its moist conduit is decaying over the region as the heaviest rain meanders over northern New England this evening. Elsewhere, spotty heavy showers will dwindle to occasional bursts of mist. There will probably be some areas of dense fog later at night and the wind on the coastal plain will subside. With the cloudcover, temperatures will only drop a few degrees into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Low level moisture will be locked in tomorrow morning so expect a calm, murky and gloomy several hours. There is still a risk of mist and a few spotty showers until about midday. Then some brightening is possible in the afternoon with breaks of sunshine most likely over western New England. Despite the absence of sunshine, the temperatures could rise to the upper 50s to near or slightly over 60.

Starting Monday, several days of bright sunshine will occur over the Northeast as a sprawling zone of high air pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. The center of the high pressure will be right over Massachusetts Wednesday morning. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s Monday, near 50 Tuesday, lower 50s Wednesday, middle to upper 50s Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the 30s and even some 20s Monday night through Wednesday night. Latest guidance suggests that it could stay dry through much of next weekend. That would be nice!

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Soggy Saturday

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 12:56:00 GMT

Light to moderate rain showers are pushing through southern New England this morning. For the majority of the day we’ll be under the clouds with off and on showers. At times, we may find a break or two in the rain, but also the chance of a passing heavy downpour. Remember this is the remnants of a tropical system. Currently low pressure is spinning off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure is nestled to our north. Since these systems are so close, the pressure gradient is very tight, leading to windy conditions. Winds out of the northeast to east will be averaging around 15 to 25 mph this morning, with 25-35 mph over the Cape and Islands. The National Weather Service has issued a WIND ADVISORY for the Cape and Island not only for the strong winds, but the potential of wind gusts of 50 mph until 1pm. The strongest winds will likely occur through the morning as both high pressure to the north and the coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic States will move further east during the day, allowing for winds to subside some. Seas are also concern, as wave heights are about 8 to 12 ft off the eastern coast of MA this morning, highest off the arm of the Cape and southern and eastern coasts of Nantucket. Seas are running about 20 ft further off shore! So with the high seas, gusty northeast to easterly winds and an astronomically high tide this morning, there are many coastal concerns. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is posted for most of the eastern coast of MA, the Cape and Nantucket until 11 AM. (This advisory does not include Boston.) During high tide which will occur from 8-9 AM for the north and south shores to 9-10 AM for the Cape and Nantucket we may find the highest level of concern for minor splash over, beach erosion and a storm surge of 1 to 1.5 ft.

Rain showers will begin to lessen overnight and by Sunday morning, although cloudy skies, many will wake up to dry conditions. As the morning goes on, a few lingering showers aren’t out of the question, but it will become drier as the day goes on. As for the cloud cover…it will be hard to break. Expect mostly cloudy skies with eventual clearing late in the day to the north and west. We really won’t see an abundance of sunshine until next week…Have you seen the 7day??? :)

Barry will be in later with his thoughts…and if any coastal damage reports come in…I’ll try to post them around midday. Before you head out…don’t forget to check the radar! Have a happy and safe weekend everyone!