Beyond The Forecast

Gloomy Days Coming

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:32:54 GMT

After yesterday's 67 degrees, the temperature maxxed out at 58 at 3:25pm today in Boston which is still 8 degrees above the average for November 21. A year ago, we were experiencing mid-winter cold over a 5-day period from the 19th through the 23rd with respective high temperatures at only 33, 35, 35, 29 and 33! Although the next few days will be cooler than the last few, it will likely be Saturday before it turns much colder. Tomorrow's lower 50s will be followed by near or just under 50 degrees through much of the upcoming week thanks to several, cloudy, gloomy, damp days. With a ridge of high pressure setting up just to our north and a wave or two of low pressure emerging from the Gulf of Mexico then running out underneath New England, the stage is primed for some periodic to occasional mist and light rain Monday and Wednesday with some spells of heavier rain on Tuesday. The northeasterly wind will become raw and brisk and gustiest up to 30 mph or so later Monday and Tuesday over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There could be a break on Thanksgiving Day when splashes of sunshine could send it up to the middle 50s but the next weathermaker will arrive with rain and showers on Friday. As the storm departs, the gates will open to release some very cold air from Canada next weekend.

At this time, no snowstorms are projected for the travelers during this upcoming holiday week but there could be some snow flurries mainly over the hills next Saturday with some accumulating snow over the Green Mountains and northern White Mountains. Speaking of snow, check out the Boston Ski & Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston. The 4-day event concludes tomorrow. I was there at the WBZ Booth from noon to 8pm today and had the pleasure of meeting many great people. Stop by tomorrow and have your picture taken with Sarah Wroblewski. She will be on hand from 11am to 3pm. While there, submit your guess in the WBZ Snowfall Contest or you can enter right here on this web site.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

Is it November?

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:48:52 GMT

Average November temperatures range from the upper 50s in the beginning of the month to the upper 40s by the end of the month. As the mercury hit 67 degrees yesterday it made me question how warm has this month been so far? 11 out of the past 20 days this month have seen either normal or above normal with respect to temperatures. Now 6 of those 11 days have seen the mercury in the 60s! The good news is that the mild conditions will continue into the weekend. Although we won’t hit the upper 60s like we did in some areas yesterday, we’ll still see temperatures about 10 degrees above the normal.

As high and mid level clouds filter the sunshine at times today, temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be light out of the west as high pressure ridges into the region from the west. Winds will gradually turn northward overnight as skies become clear. Temperatures will fall back to the 30s overnight, which is not unusual for this time of year, however Boston may stay near 40 degrees. Lucky for us, high pressure continues to dominate the weather tomorrow! It will be another bright day, but as the dome of high pressure moves over northern New England, northeasterly winds will be over the area, leading to the development of perhaps a few more clouds in southeastern areas. It will also be slightly cooler than today with highs in the lower 50s…but hey…that is still above normal! The coolest conditions tomorrow will be along the immediate coast.

Got Plans??? Well some of you might be taking advantage of the mild and dry conditions this weekend by putting up your outdoor holiday lights, but if you want to think snow….head to the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston! Barry Burbank will be there from 11 AM to 6 PM TODAY and I will be there from 11 AM to 3 PM tomorrow! Have a great weekend everyone!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston/ 

Frozen 49th State...

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:14:47 GMT

Alaska is freezing...literally. Bettles, Alaska reported a low temperature this morning of nearly 50 degrees below zero...that's with NO wind, thank you very much, so there was no wind chill. The high there today didn't even make it to -35! That's cold folks..and there the cold will remain..at least for now. The way the weather patterns usually works is that when things are bitterly cold in Alaska things are pretty comfortable/warm here in New England...this is a perfect example of that. There are times when that is not true but due to the wavelengths of the troughs and ridges this is typcially the case. A small piece of this frigid air will break free and drop south into Central Canada next week...the air will then modify as it continues its trek to the east. We will see some chilly weather here by next weekend, but certainly not anything that cold, in fact, most areas will still see highs in the 40s. This is the warmest November here in 3 years and that mild air will linger into next week with highs Saturday expected to hit 60 and then remain in the 50s right through Thanksgiving..before that cooldown next weekend.

Weekend & Beyond...

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:31:43 GMT

Impressive downpours lighting up the radar this AM...they'll be gone by late morning...nice, but breezy afternoon. As far as the weekend goes I like both days a lot...Saturday especially! Mostly sunny and mild again with highs 55-60 degrees, can't beat it for outdoor fun. Sunday will be a little cooler based on a NE wind direction so highs will cap out in the lower 50s. The day will start out sunny but some low stratocumulus may form in the afternoon as the NE breeze kicks in...dry though!

A weaker low will approach on Monday starting the holiday week with some rain which may linger into Tuesday. Tuesday evening and Wednesday...big travel days...look fine and dry.

We have been entrenched in a warmer than normal ridging pattern most of this month. There is some model consistency now regarding an approaching trough for later next week. As it approaches late on Thanksgiving Day it will be trying to spin up an ocean low. However, as of now, the baroclinic zone appears to be setting up too far offshore and the trough appears progressive and not likely to set up shop on the East Coast for an extended period. So if a low does develop it may just be too far away and fairly fast moving. We will be keeping an eye on whether or not the trough trends going negative, slowing a developing system down and inching closer to us...time will tell.

Also, both the GFS and more so the Euro are now indicating the ridge trend in the east to be tough to break completely down...typical in an El Nino pattern. Thus, it appears that while we'll have colder outbreaks as we turn the calendar there will also be mild days too. Also something we are eyeing closely.

Have a good weekend all!

What's Your Guess?

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:57:19 GMT

We are starting our annual snowfall contest...guess how much snow will be measured this year at Logan Airport and you could win a season pass to Mt. Wachusett! Put in your guess on the website here, or do it in person at the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo this weekend!

A cut-off low in the Midwest is finally starting to open up and move to the Northeast. Driven by and intensifying 300mb jet and a potent 500mb vort max this system, may look ragged now, will actually strengthen as it approaches us. The center of the storm will still roll up to our west then north pushing a front through New England tomorrow midday. That front will have some juice to work with as a flare up of showers off of the Carolina's will inject some moisture into the system as it races through. It will be a progressive front and won't stall over us for too long so rain amounts, while respectable, will not be even close to the soaking numbers we got last weekend. The front should be through by 1PM and NW winds will pick up in its wake...drying us out nicely and even supplying some sunny breaks later in the day. The air following the front has had time to moderate when the storm was stagnant in the center of the nation so once again fairly mild air on both weekend days. Saturday will be bright and Sunday will too for that matter but I am a little concerned that low clouds could plague us for a time on Sunday especially over SE Mass.

Another storm originating from the juicy Gulf of Mexico will make a run at us early next week. Timing and strength are still in question but it does appear now that rain is likely on Monday and the system could stall into Tuesday as well. Good news here is that the busiest travel day of the year...Wednesday...looks dry.

Arctic Sea Ice

Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:41:13 GMT

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center Arctic Sea ice in October 2009 had the second-lowest ice extent for the month since 1979. Most of the lack of ice is being attributed to the very warm air mass over the area with most places registering temperatures as high as 11 degrees above normal. Some studies have in turn shown that the open water provides energy for storm formation which may in turn tear apart more of the ice sheet...interesting. During the month of October ice over the Arctic formed at a rate of nearly 37,000 square miles per day...remarkable when you consider that the Bay State is made up of a total of about 10,000 square miles. So everyday in October ice grew across the Arctic Sea at a rate of three times the size of MA! Check out some of the temperatures in Alaska this afternoon! Ice will REALLY form with temperatures like that! Usually in the weather world when Alaska is freezing we aren't! Case in point: Our amazing streak will last one more day with highs getting close to 60 on Thursday before showers arrive overnight and Friday. The weekend still looks dry!

November Bliss

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 20:17:12 GMT

So far this has been a November to remember...sure we had a big soaker on Saturday, but for the most part this normally cloudy and cool month has actually turned out to be quite pleasant! It's about to get even better with temperatures rising back into to near 60 by Thursday! The other good news is that the weekend storm which looked like it would give us a wet Sunday is now tracking further south and may just hold off until either Monday or Tuesday. Todd mentioned below that the average temperature so far this month is 3 degrees warmer than normal, the last time we saw such a warm November was 3 years ago. November 2006 ended up over 4 degrees warmer than normal but it was also wet with nearly six inches of rain! So as Thanksgiving draws near things seem pretty quiet and mild and there appears to be no major change to that...sure it will cool down from time to time...but there are no signs of any Arctic invasions anywhere in the US right into next week!

Still Waiting...

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:01:11 GMT

Fun Facts:

1) The date of Boston's average first freeze has come and gone...that day was November 7th. Tonight will be another opportunity to drop down to the freezing mark of 32 degrees as the triples c's will be with us (clear, calm & cold). Even though the burbs will be in the 20s and maybe even a few upper teens tomorrow morning and again on Thursday morning, the heat island effect will likely prevent temps at Logan from getting down to 32...thus, the wait will go on.

2) Today's high will be more November-like...near 50...but the average temp in Boston this month is running nearly 3 degrees above normal...and milder than normal air is expected through the weekend.

3) Despite the soaker over the weekend, precip amounts are running about a half inch below normal.

4) Lastly, the month of November averages 1.3" of Snow...we've had none. (We did have measurable snow back in October...0.1" on the 18th)

Leonids

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:28:20 GMT

The annual meteor shower peaks after midnight tonight and early Tuesday and with clear skies and no moonlight, due to the new moon, conditions should be perfect for viewing. Many areas should see as many as 20 to 30 per hour...check out the top ten facts about the Leonid meteors and enjoy the show!

Quiet Times...

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 13:21:24 GMT

Stagnant flow across the US this week bodes well for us. A mature cyclone in the Midwest is "cut-off" from the westerlies and will spin for days out there. High pressure from Southern Canada will settle into the Northeast instead. This means days of sunshine this week. With the airmass briefly chilly tomorrow temps may be a bit below normal but the air will moderate nicely by the end of the week and once again another November week that will average out above normal for temps.

So, will this pattern breakdown? In the short term, the answer is no. A large Aleutian Low in the Pacific, typical in an El Nino pattern, is creating trofiness in the West and promotes ridging in the East. There are, however, some indications that a pattern shift will occur late in the month chilling us down as we turn the calender to December. So stay tunes Winter lovers...there is some hope down the line for you. For now though warm weather lovers (like myself) are more than happy!