Beyond The Forecast

Gloomy Days Coming

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:32:54 GMT

After yesterday's 67 degrees, the temperature maxxed out at 58 at 3:25pm today in Boston which is still 8 degrees above the average for November 21. A year ago, we were experiencing mid-winter cold over a 5-day period from the 19th through the 23rd with respective high temperatures at only 33, 35, 35, 29 and 33! Although the next few days will be cooler than the last few, it will likely be Saturday before it turns much colder. Tomorrow's lower 50s will be followed by near or just under 50 degrees through much of the upcoming week thanks to several, cloudy, gloomy, damp days. With a ridge of high pressure setting up just to our north and a wave or two of low pressure emerging from the Gulf of Mexico then running out underneath New England, the stage is primed for some periodic to occasional mist and light rain Monday and Wednesday with some spells of heavier rain on Tuesday. The northeasterly wind will become raw and brisk and gustiest up to 30 mph or so later Monday and Tuesday over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There could be a break on Thanksgiving Day when splashes of sunshine could send it up to the middle 50s but the next weathermaker will arrive with rain and showers on Friday. As the storm departs, the gates will open to release some very cold air from Canada next weekend.

At this time, no snowstorms are projected for the travelers during this upcoming holiday week but there could be some snow flurries mainly over the hills next Saturday with some accumulating snow over the Green Mountains and northern White Mountains. Speaking of snow, check out the Boston Ski & Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston. The 4-day event concludes tomorrow. I was there at the WBZ Booth from noon to 8pm today and had the pleasure of meeting many great people. Stop by tomorrow and have your picture taken with Sarah Wroblewski. She will be on hand from 11am to 3pm. While there, submit your guess in the WBZ Snowfall Contest or you can enter right here on this web site.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

Is it November?

Sat, 21 Nov 2009 13:48:52 GMT

Average November temperatures range from the upper 50s in the beginning of the month to the upper 40s by the end of the month. As the mercury hit 67 degrees yesterday it made me question how warm has this month been so far? 11 out of the past 20 days this month have seen either normal or above normal with respect to temperatures. Now 6 of those 11 days have seen the mercury in the 60s! The good news is that the mild conditions will continue into the weekend. Although we won’t hit the upper 60s like we did in some areas yesterday, we’ll still see temperatures about 10 degrees above the normal.

As high and mid level clouds filter the sunshine at times today, temperatures will still climb into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be light out of the west as high pressure ridges into the region from the west. Winds will gradually turn northward overnight as skies become clear. Temperatures will fall back to the 30s overnight, which is not unusual for this time of year, however Boston may stay near 40 degrees. Lucky for us, high pressure continues to dominate the weather tomorrow! It will be another bright day, but as the dome of high pressure moves over northern New England, northeasterly winds will be over the area, leading to the development of perhaps a few more clouds in southeastern areas. It will also be slightly cooler than today with highs in the lower 50s…but hey…that is still above normal! The coolest conditions tomorrow will be along the immediate coast.

Got Plans??? Well some of you might be taking advantage of the mild and dry conditions this weekend by putting up your outdoor holiday lights, but if you want to think snow….head to the Ski and Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston! Barry Burbank will be there from 11 AM to 6 PM TODAY and I will be there from 11 AM to 3 PM tomorrow! Have a great weekend everyone!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston/ 

Uneventful Week Ahead

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:32:18 GMT

After yesterday's monsoonal conditions, the atmosphere dried out just enough to enable some sunshine to break through many areas this afternoon. As a result, temperatures spiked into the lower to middle 60s. It will turn out being the warmest day of the week because cooler air will drain into the region behind a departing weak cold front early tomorrow. Before its arrival, the residual moist air will condense out into fog for many locations. Exercise caution while driving into the night. Drier air may begin to gobble up the fog during or, in some cases, prior to the morning commute hours. Varying amounts of cloudiness above the groundfog will be thinning and decreasing so tomorrow will turn out much sunnier with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 as a drying northwesterly wind freshens to 10-20 mph.

The steering currents will propel a sprawling zone of high air pressure from the Great Lakes into New England as the week progresses. The center of the high pressure will be poised right over us Wednesday into Thursday. Consequently, it will be a perfect setup for premium radiational cooling conditions. Expect suburban lows in the lower to middle 20s late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and middle to upper 50s on Thursday. Plan on a nippy breeze Tuesday with light wind thereafter through Thursday. The next minor frontal boundary will introduce clouds Thursday night with a period of showers on Friday. This will not be a heavy rainmaker. Partly sunny weather should return for next weekend.

The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks early Tuesday morning. With no moonlight and a clear sky, we should have optimum conditions for viewing the anticipated 20 to 30 "shooting stars" per hour in the best viewing period from 1-5am.

Make it a good week and GO PATS!

Murky to Marvelous

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:40:59 GMT

It’s a cloudy, murky start to the day with areas of fog and patchy drizzle. We’ll find the risk of a spot shower or patch of drizzle through the morning hours. It can only get better from here. By the afternoon drier conditions will arrive, although along the coast some mist may continue. Cloudy skies will eventually begin to break across western MA through the afternoon and breaks of sunshine will develop from west to east, clearing out completely overnight. Highs will be above normal for this time of year getting into the upper 50s to low 60s, perhaps milder on the Cape, as temps are already in the low 60s. However, I believe the clouds will hang tough there today, so not much budge in the temperatures are expected.

Last year on this day the mercury hit 70 degrees. Then…later in the week temperatures dropped well below normal and we were stuck in the 30s for a few days. Lucky for us…that pattern is not setting up this year. Temperatures will remain above normal tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s under brighter skies. High pressure will then move overhead, bringing slightly cooler air, but really only dropping temperatures back to near normal. With that area of high pressure… lots of sunshine! It’s a good time to be in New England! Enjoy your Sunday everyone and GO PATS!

ALSO…since most comments on recent blogs have been about an extended winter forecast, what do you think about this article? Do you think this is right? I would love to hear your thoughts!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20091111/ts_afp/chinaweathersnow/print

One other thing to note…The Boston Globe Ski & Snowboard Expo is this Thursday, November 19^th through Sunday, November 22, 2009. Each member of the weather team will be making an appearance at some point or another. I’ll be there next Sunday, so make plans and head to the expo and come by the WBZ traveling weather center and say hi! I would love to meet you! For more information click the link below!

http://www.bewisports.com/expos/boston

It Gets Better... Much Better

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:38:16 GMT

It has been a soggy Saturday. The rain has varied from drizzle to downpours and, according to our special WBZ Weather Watchers, NWS Skywarn Spotters and over 125 stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network, has amounted to 1.2 to 3.8 inches in the viewing range of WBZ. Copious amounts in the range of 4 to 5.5 inches drenched southern and central Maine resulting in stream and river flooding. Otherwise, ponding of roadways in poor drainage locations was the main problem in today's storm over southern New England. There has been little wind inland but a gustier onshore flow up to 20-35 mph occurred over southeastern Massachusetts. Seas have been rough thanks to the wind over the ocean and the higher waves generated by the storm which has been pounding the Mid-Atlantic Coast much of the week. This system has weakened significantly and is centered hundreds and hundreds of miles south of New England. It is settling southeastward. Its moist conduit is decaying over the region as the heaviest rain meanders over northern New England this evening. Elsewhere, spotty heavy showers will dwindle to occasional bursts of mist. There will probably be some areas of dense fog later at night and the wind on the coastal plain will subside. With the cloudcover, temperatures will only drop a few degrees into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Low level moisture will be locked in tomorrow morning so expect a calm, murky and gloomy several hours. There is still a risk of mist and a few spotty showers until about midday. Then some brightening is possible in the afternoon with breaks of sunshine most likely over western New England. Despite the absence of sunshine, the temperatures could rise to the upper 50s to near or slightly over 60.

Starting Monday, several days of bright sunshine will occur over the Northeast as a sprawling zone of high air pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. The center of the high pressure will be right over Massachusetts Wednesday morning. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s Monday, near 50 Tuesday, lower 50s Wednesday, middle to upper 50s Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the 30s and even some 20s Monday night through Wednesday night. Latest guidance suggests that it could stay dry through much of next weekend. That would be nice!

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Soggy Saturday

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 12:56:00 GMT

Light to moderate rain showers are pushing through southern New England this morning. For the majority of the day we’ll be under the clouds with off and on showers. At times, we may find a break or two in the rain, but also the chance of a passing heavy downpour. Remember this is the remnants of a tropical system. Currently low pressure is spinning off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and high pressure is nestled to our north. Since these systems are so close, the pressure gradient is very tight, leading to windy conditions. Winds out of the northeast to east will be averaging around 15 to 25 mph this morning, with 25-35 mph over the Cape and Islands. The National Weather Service has issued a WIND ADVISORY for the Cape and Island not only for the strong winds, but the potential of wind gusts of 50 mph until 1pm. The strongest winds will likely occur through the morning as both high pressure to the north and the coastal low near the Mid-Atlantic States will move further east during the day, allowing for winds to subside some. Seas are also concern, as wave heights are about 8 to 12 ft off the eastern coast of MA this morning, highest off the arm of the Cape and southern and eastern coasts of Nantucket. Seas are running about 20 ft further off shore! So with the high seas, gusty northeast to easterly winds and an astronomically high tide this morning, there are many coastal concerns. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY is posted for most of the eastern coast of MA, the Cape and Nantucket until 11 AM. (This advisory does not include Boston.) During high tide which will occur from 8-9 AM for the north and south shores to 9-10 AM for the Cape and Nantucket we may find the highest level of concern for minor splash over, beach erosion and a storm surge of 1 to 1.5 ft.

Rain showers will begin to lessen overnight and by Sunday morning, although cloudy skies, many will wake up to dry conditions. As the morning goes on, a few lingering showers aren’t out of the question, but it will become drier as the day goes on. As for the cloud cover…it will be hard to break. Expect mostly cloudy skies with eventual clearing late in the day to the north and west. We really won’t see an abundance of sunshine until next week…Have you seen the 7day??? :)

Barry will be in later with his thoughts…and if any coastal damage reports come in…I’ll try to post them around midday. Before you head out…don’t forget to check the radar! Have a happy and safe weekend everyone!

Changes on the Way...

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:11:42 GMT

Another gorgeous day setting up with Indian Summer conditions prevailing. Records are a bit of a stretch but 70 degrees is not! Enjoy because a coldfront located in the Midwest is marching eastbound. It is expected to pass on through midday tomorrow. There won't be any showers, just some clouds...but certainly colder temps for the mid and second half of the week. Temps won't be alarming cold but noticeable especially when compared to the balmy conditions the last few days.

Of greater interest is Hurricane Ida...barely a hurricane at the moment in the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is expected to make landfall in Alabama or Florida late tonight or tomorrow morning. While there will be wind damage, the Gulf Coast will be spared devastation due to the weakening storm. Heavy rain will likely lead to flooding. After Ida makes landfall the storm will become extra-tropical...an ordinary storm...but a strong one as it travels through the SE US toward the Carolinas. It will then move out over water again but restrengthening into a tropical system is unlikely as water temps have cooled off since their late summer highs and more importantly it will have broad upper level support by then. Still, the storm will be a strong cyclone capable of gusty winds, heavy rain and growing surf for the Eastern Seaboard. The million dollar question is where will that stuff occur?

Well the answer appears to be just south of us in the Mid-Atlantic. The vort max driving the coldfront through tomorrow will drive south and east breaking down the ridge in place over the Eastern US to some extent...just enough to stear the decaying Hurricane to the south and then east of us as the Westerlies briefly return in the wake of the vort max to keep the storm out of New England. So far now we go with a dry forecast for the week. Despite the lack of rain, we will still be in the cyclonic wind field with, sometimes gusty, NE winds keeping temps at or slightly below normal levels for the entire second half of the week.

Indian Summer

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:34:59 GMT

Did you enjoy today's beautiful weather? It was sweet with high temperatures of 64 to 68 degrees at most of the stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network. They were about 1 to 4 degrees higher than I had predicted. Boston's official high of 68 occurred at 2:54pm. Assuming sufficient atmospheric mixing materializes, tomorrow's potential temperatures are about 3 to 5 degrees higher than today's despite a chillier start in the morning. A small bubble of high pressure is poised overhead tonight so radiational cooling will drop the temperatures down to the lower 30s in outlying lowland locations while the lows for the larger urban centers will fall slightly under 50. With ample sunshine and some afternoon wispy cloudiness arriving, a freshening southwesterly breeze to 10-15 mph will prop the highs close to the records tomorrow. Boston's is 74 set in 1945. I think that much of the area will be at or slightly above 70 degrees! After that, it should be much milder tomorrow night then with the presence of considerable high and some mid-level cloudiness on Tuesday, it will be a bit cooler as a dry cold front settles across the Boston area around lunchtime. The cloudiness will exit southward Wednesday morning as a sprawling zone of high pressure ridges eastward into New England from the Great Lakes. Once the cloudiness exits, it should be mainly clear Wednesday afternoon through at least Saturday as the high pressure ridge becomes stationary right over the region. It looks like an advection of some chilly air especially at low levels will make it rather nippy here Wednesday through Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the middle 20s to middle 30s except a bit milder in Boston and daytime highs will range from the upper 40s Wednesday to the middle 40s Thursday to near 50 Friday with a gradual warming trend next weekend.

Check out the enhanced satellite image of Hurricane Ida. As of 10pm EST, this rare November Gulf of Mexico hurricane was centered near 23.7N and 86.7W or about 400 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Category 2 Hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph. The National Hurricane Center projects Ida making landfall on the Florida Panhandle very early Tuesday morning as a minimal hurricane. Consequently, a Hurricane Warning has been posted from Pascagoula, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida. Soon after, it is probable that the storm will be in a mode of decay into an extratropical cyclone. The storm is forecast to weaken over northern Florida then be absorbed by a developing gale center east off the South Carolina/Georgia coast the second half of the week.

Enjoy some more Indian Summer conditions into Tuesday and make it a good week!

Pats Forecast

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 17:02:47 GMT

What a day for football! Time to squish the fish! The Pats take on the Miami Dolphins at Foxboro this afternoon. Temperatures are warming up nicely under mostly sunny skies, so expect game time temperatures in the mid 60s. Westerly winds will be about 5 to 10 mph. GO PATS!!!

Tomorrow will be just as pleasant with lots of sunshine and very warm conditions for this time of year. In fact, it will feel like mid May with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will also be rather gusty out of the south to southwest. Winds may gust as high as 25 mph during the afternoon. Even though clouds will be on the increase Tuesday ahead of a cold front, temperatures will stay mild in the low to mid 60s. Enjoy this stretch, because once that front passes through, much cooler conditions will follow for the rest of the week.

Tropics…Hurricane Ida is moving through the Yucatan Channel at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph. Some weakening is expected once Ida moves into the Gulf of Mexico; however the Gulf coastal states, particularly from Louisiana to the western coast of Florida, should monitor the movement very closely over the next 24 to 48 hours. Long-range models suggest Ida brings an abundant amount of moisture to the central and eastern Gulf Coast while further weakening. Remnants of the system pass through the southeast before getting swept away from a weather boundary off the eastern seaboard. (That weather boundary is the cold front that will pass through our area Tuesday night into Wednesday.) It seems re-development occurs off the Mid-Atlantic coast, but as a large area of high pressure builds into our area, the storm gets pushed out to sea.

Enjoy the day today and tune in later on tonight for the latest developments in the forecast!

Warmer Days Ahead

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 03:21:07 GMT

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30 and we have a late bloomer tonight. Ida is on the cusp of being only the 4th hurricane of 2009. The tropical storm is currently centered about 150 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico or about 110 miles south of the western tip of Cuba as of 10pm. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. The storm is projected to be a miminal hurricane for about 36 hours followed by weakening before approaching the Florida Panhandle later Tuesday. Presently, it appears that this system will not have any impact on our weather this coming week.

Over the next 24 hours, a weak warm front and a weak cold front will cross the area with little fanfare. There could be a period of passing cloudiness tonight but much of Sunday will feature ample sunshine sending temperatures more than 10 degrees higher than today reaching the lower 60s at least. With a light west to southwesterly wind of 5-15 mph, the weather will be delightful at Gillette Stadium as the Pats take on the Dolphins at the 1pm game. A small bubble of high pressure will then build offshore and warmer air will be pumped in on Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs of 65-70 with bright sunshine until some patchy clouds arrive during Tuesday afternoon as a cold front settles southward from northern New England. There could be a few widely scattered brief showers associated with this frontal passage. After that, colder air will flow into the region with highs near or a bit more than 20 degrees lower on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for max readings in the upper 40s to near 50 despite lots of bright sunshine. All in all, it looks like rather uneventful weather over the next week featuring warmth the first half and chill the second half.

Sarah will chime in with the latest in the morning. Have a nice rest of the weekend.