Beyond The Forecast

Gloomy Days Coming

Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:32:54 GMT

After yesterday's 67 degrees, the temperature maxxed out at 58 at 3:25pm today in Boston which is still 8 degrees above the average for November 21. A year ago, we were experiencing mid-winter cold over a 5-day period from the 19th through the 23rd with respective high temperatures at only 33, 35, 35, 29 and 33! Although the next few days will be cooler than the last few, it will likely be Saturday before it turns much colder. Tomorrow's lower 50s will be followed by near or just under 50 degrees through much of the upcoming week thanks to several, cloudy, gloomy, damp days. With a ridge of high pressure setting up just to our north and a wave or two of low pressure emerging from the Gulf of Mexico then running out underneath New England, the stage is primed for some periodic to occasional mist and light rain Monday and Wednesday with some spells of heavier rain on Tuesday. The northeasterly wind will become raw and brisk and gustiest up to 30 mph or so later Monday and Tuesday over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod. There could be a break on Thanksgiving Day when splashes of sunshine could send it up to the middle 50s but the next weathermaker will arrive with rain and showers on Friday. As the storm departs, the gates will open to release some very cold air from Canada next weekend.

At this time, no snowstorms are projected for the travelers during this upcoming holiday week but there could be some snow flurries mainly over the hills next Saturday with some accumulating snow over the Green Mountains and northern White Mountains. Speaking of snow, check out the Boston Ski & Snowboard Expo at the Bayside Expo Center in Boston. The 4-day event concludes tomorrow. I was there at the WBZ Booth from noon to 8pm today and had the pleasure of meeting many great people. Stop by tomorrow and have your picture taken with Sarah Wroblewski. She will be on hand from 11am to 3pm. While there, submit your guess in the WBZ Snowfall Contest or you can enter right here on this web site.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

Uneventful Week Ahead

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:32:18 GMT

After yesterday's monsoonal conditions, the atmosphere dried out just enough to enable some sunshine to break through many areas this afternoon. As a result, temperatures spiked into the lower to middle 60s. It will turn out being the warmest day of the week because cooler air will drain into the region behind a departing weak cold front early tomorrow. Before its arrival, the residual moist air will condense out into fog for many locations. Exercise caution while driving into the night. Drier air may begin to gobble up the fog during or, in some cases, prior to the morning commute hours. Varying amounts of cloudiness above the groundfog will be thinning and decreasing so tomorrow will turn out much sunnier with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 as a drying northwesterly wind freshens to 10-20 mph.

The steering currents will propel a sprawling zone of high air pressure from the Great Lakes into New England as the week progresses. The center of the high pressure will be poised right over us Wednesday into Thursday. Consequently, it will be a perfect setup for premium radiational cooling conditions. Expect suburban lows in the lower to middle 20s late Tuesday night and late Wednesday night. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and middle to upper 50s on Thursday. Plan on a nippy breeze Tuesday with light wind thereafter through Thursday. The next minor frontal boundary will introduce clouds Thursday night with a period of showers on Friday. This will not be a heavy rainmaker. Partly sunny weather should return for next weekend.

The Leonid Meteor Shower peaks early Tuesday morning. With no moonlight and a clear sky, we should have optimum conditions for viewing the anticipated 20 to 30 "shooting stars" per hour in the best viewing period from 1-5am.

Make it a good week and GO PATS!

It Gets Better... Much Better

Sat, 14 Nov 2009 22:38:16 GMT

It has been a soggy Saturday. The rain has varied from drizzle to downpours and, according to our special WBZ Weather Watchers, NWS Skywarn Spotters and over 125 stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network, has amounted to 1.2 to 3.8 inches in the viewing range of WBZ. Copious amounts in the range of 4 to 5.5 inches drenched southern and central Maine resulting in stream and river flooding. Otherwise, ponding of roadways in poor drainage locations was the main problem in today's storm over southern New England. There has been little wind inland but a gustier onshore flow up to 20-35 mph occurred over southeastern Massachusetts. Seas have been rough thanks to the wind over the ocean and the higher waves generated by the storm which has been pounding the Mid-Atlantic Coast much of the week. This system has weakened significantly and is centered hundreds and hundreds of miles south of New England. It is settling southeastward. Its moist conduit is decaying over the region as the heaviest rain meanders over northern New England this evening. Elsewhere, spotty heavy showers will dwindle to occasional bursts of mist. There will probably be some areas of dense fog later at night and the wind on the coastal plain will subside. With the cloudcover, temperatures will only drop a few degrees into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Low level moisture will be locked in tomorrow morning so expect a calm, murky and gloomy several hours. There is still a risk of mist and a few spotty showers until about midday. Then some brightening is possible in the afternoon with breaks of sunshine most likely over western New England. Despite the absence of sunshine, the temperatures could rise to the upper 50s to near or slightly over 60.

Starting Monday, several days of bright sunshine will occur over the Northeast as a sprawling zone of high air pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. The center of the high pressure will be right over Massachusetts Wednesday morning. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s Monday, near 50 Tuesday, lower 50s Wednesday, middle to upper 50s Thursday and near 60 on Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the 30s and even some 20s Monday night through Wednesday night. Latest guidance suggests that it could stay dry through much of next weekend. That would be nice!

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Indian Summer

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 02:34:59 GMT

Did you enjoy today's beautiful weather? It was sweet with high temperatures of 64 to 68 degrees at most of the stations on the WBZ WeatherBug Network. They were about 1 to 4 degrees higher than I had predicted. Boston's official high of 68 occurred at 2:54pm. Assuming sufficient atmospheric mixing materializes, tomorrow's potential temperatures are about 3 to 5 degrees higher than today's despite a chillier start in the morning. A small bubble of high pressure is poised overhead tonight so radiational cooling will drop the temperatures down to the lower 30s in outlying lowland locations while the lows for the larger urban centers will fall slightly under 50. With ample sunshine and some afternoon wispy cloudiness arriving, a freshening southwesterly breeze to 10-15 mph will prop the highs close to the records tomorrow. Boston's is 74 set in 1945. I think that much of the area will be at or slightly above 70 degrees! After that, it should be much milder tomorrow night then with the presence of considerable high and some mid-level cloudiness on Tuesday, it will be a bit cooler as a dry cold front settles across the Boston area around lunchtime. The cloudiness will exit southward Wednesday morning as a sprawling zone of high pressure ridges eastward into New England from the Great Lakes. Once the cloudiness exits, it should be mainly clear Wednesday afternoon through at least Saturday as the high pressure ridge becomes stationary right over the region. It looks like an advection of some chilly air especially at low levels will make it rather nippy here Wednesday through Friday. Nighttime lows will bottom out in the middle 20s to middle 30s except a bit milder in Boston and daytime highs will range from the upper 40s Wednesday to the middle 40s Thursday to near 50 Friday with a gradual warming trend next weekend.

Check out the enhanced satellite image of Hurricane Ida. As of 10pm EST, this rare November Gulf of Mexico hurricane was centered near 23.7N and 86.7W or about 400 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Category 2 Hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph. The National Hurricane Center projects Ida making landfall on the Florida Panhandle very early Tuesday morning as a minimal hurricane. Consequently, a Hurricane Warning has been posted from Pascagoula, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida. Soon after, it is probable that the storm will be in a mode of decay into an extratropical cyclone. The storm is forecast to weaken over northern Florida then be absorbed by a developing gale center east off the South Carolina/Georgia coast the second half of the week.

Enjoy some more Indian Summer conditions into Tuesday and make it a good week!

Warmer Days Ahead

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 03:21:07 GMT

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30 and we have a late bloomer tonight. Ida is on the cusp of being only the 4th hurricane of 2009. The tropical storm is currently centered about 150 miles east of Cozumel, Mexico or about 110 miles south of the western tip of Cuba as of 10pm. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. The storm is projected to be a miminal hurricane for about 36 hours followed by weakening before approaching the Florida Panhandle later Tuesday. Presently, it appears that this system will not have any impact on our weather this coming week.

Over the next 24 hours, a weak warm front and a weak cold front will cross the area with little fanfare. There could be a period of passing cloudiness tonight but much of Sunday will feature ample sunshine sending temperatures more than 10 degrees higher than today reaching the lower 60s at least. With a light west to southwesterly wind of 5-15 mph, the weather will be delightful at Gillette Stadium as the Pats take on the Dolphins at the 1pm game. A small bubble of high pressure will then build offshore and warmer air will be pumped in on Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs of 65-70 with bright sunshine until some patchy clouds arrive during Tuesday afternoon as a cold front settles southward from northern New England. There could be a few widely scattered brief showers associated with this frontal passage. After that, colder air will flow into the region with highs near or a bit more than 20 degrees lower on Wednesday and Thursday. Look for max readings in the upper 40s to near 50 despite lots of bright sunshine. All in all, it looks like rather uneventful weather over the next week featuring warmth the first half and chill the second half.

Sarah will chime in with the latest in the morning. Have a nice rest of the weekend.

Out To Sea

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:53:09 GMT

There are no big changes in the forecast. A zone of high pressure is providing our decent weather today albeit somewhat cooler than average for November 4. It still looks like the ocean storm will be brewing but most of its fury will be spent well offshore later tomorrow into Friday. Nova Scotia will be getting a good beating of wind and rain but our area will only receieve a few spotty light rain showers tomorrow as a burst of energy arrives from the west. This energy will be transferred into the developing ocean storm and as it blossoms, parts of coastal New England may get backlashed with a couple bands of precipitation swirling around the western flank of the offshore circulation. Consequently, some rain showers are probable tomorrow night with a chance of some wet snowflakes mixing in as the column of atmosphere cools and especailly if any heavy precipitation briefly spins in. In any event, I do not anticiapte any problems at this point for the morning commute on Friday. There will be a gusty north to northwesterly wind and some sunshine will return. Thereafter, high pressure takes control through the weekend into the first part of next week. Initially, we'll be on the cold side of the system on Saturday with morning temperatures starting out in the middle 20s to middle 30s.. Via ample sunshine, there will be a recovery to slightly over 50 degrees that day followed by highs closer to 60 on Sunday afternoon. It should be delightful for the 1pm Patriots Game at Gillette Stadium. On Monday, with some sunshine and a few clouds, it will warm up to the middle 60s except along the coast where a seabreeze will keep it in the 50s. Then a south-southwesterly wind will maintain the warmth in the 60s on Tuesday. The next weathermaker will be a cold front which will produce a band of rain showers Tuesday night.

Enjoy the rest of the day.

Chilly Days Ahead

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:25:45 GMT

A weak wave of low pressure southeast of Nantucket is moving away from New England so today's sprinkles and light showers over southeastern Massachusetts have ended but the clouds will linger and blot out the light of the Full Beaver Moon through much of the night over many areas. Meantime, we're watching a cold front chugging across the Great lakes. It is destined to pass through the Boston area late tomorrow afternoon to early evening with nothing more than a band of clouds. Between tonight's clouds and those clouds arriving tomorrow afternoon, there should be a spell of sunshine developing tomorrow morning. The temperatures will max out near the average for November 3 at 56 degrees but, after that, chillier weather will persist through Saturday morning. With the cold frontal passage, the wind will become brisk tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Until then, the westerly breeze will be rather meager. Then as a large zone of high pressure builds into the Northeast Wednesday, sunshine will be prevalent through midday as the wind slackens. Later that afternoon, the high cloudiness will be appearing as the next weathermaker dives toward the region. It consists of two parcels of energy in the upper air. It appears that there will be a phasing or linkage of these packages which will trigger cyclogenesis over the ocean. The storm's precise place of birth, intensification rate and departure speed will determine if coastal New England will reap any precipitation. Presently, the initialization is projected to occur well out at sea suggesting that most of the backlashing will miss the region. However, as the amplifying trough of low pressure passes overhead, a few spotty rain showers could happen Thursday afternoon and evening with a potential switch to snow showers and flurries over hillier terrain farther north and west of Boston. Any early snowflakes Friday morning will vanish as the storm tracks south of Nova Scotia and a strengthening ridge of high pressure closes in from the west. As a result, the gusty wind will blow much of Friday as sunshine becomes more widespread but temperatures will fail to rise above the lower to middle 40s. Once the ridge of high air pressure sets up south of New England, a return southwesterly flow of milder air commences over the weekend when it will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Temperatures will rise to near or a bit over 50 on Saturday, 55-60 on Sunday and 60-65 on Monday.

Have a good Tuesday.

Dilemma(s) Of The Week

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:31:19 GMT

There are two troublespots in this week's forecast. The first one occurs late tomorrow into tomorrow night when there is some uncertainty about rain release. A weak wave of low pressure could fringe southeastern Massachusetts with sprinkles and light showers. The more ominous dilemma is scheduled for later Thursday into Friday morning. At that time, the potential phasing of two upper air disturbances could evolve into a developing coastal storm near New England. Its precise place of birth, intensification rate and departure speed cannot be confidently determined at this time and all of these factors are crucial to forecast accuracy. Presently, I will recommend following Todd and Ken over the next few days to see if anything substantial could materialize. Right now, my thinking is leaning toward a close call meaning that the storm will deepen into a gale center in the Canadian Maritimes after it teases our region with some rain near the coast and a changeover to some snow farther north and west of Boston Thursday night. Clearly, there will not be any warm days coming up soon with expected high temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees below the average the second half of the week. Friday will be the coldest and windiest. In the meantime, hopefully, we'll have a couple nights of moonshine with the Full Beaver Moon occurring Tuesday.

Make it a good week!

A New Time, A New Month

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 14:55:27 GMT

The month is new and the time has changed. Welcome to November. It is my least-liked month because it is, statistically, the gloomiest of the year, the sunsets happen before 5pm, the final leaves fall to their death and must be cleaned up and the landscape turns brown and barren. The average high temperatures fall from 57 at the beginning to 47 by the end of the month. Thanksgiving is one of the good things to look forward to. What is your least-liked month?

Well, another Halloween has come and gone with the wind. We had 77 trick or treaters visit our home. Some of them expressed their thanks for the warm weather. Wish I could say that I had something to do with that. The only thing I did was predict on my last weathercast on Tuesday noon that it would hit 73 degrees on Halloween and at 2:11pm yesterday, the high temperature in Boston hit 73!. Now it's back to reality today as the highs max out in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Early morning sprinkles and light showers are drying up so there will be a transition to a brightening sky followed by decreasing cloudiness and increasing sunshine from later this morning into the afternoon. Just remember that sunset occurs at 4:37pm today. UGH!

A wave of low pressure is lagging behind over eastern Virginia. That system will poke some high cloudiness into southern New England later tonight then thicken tomorrow and the northwestern flank of its rain shield could spill over Cape Cod and southeastern Massachusetts later tomorrow afternoon and evening. Boston could briefly receive some sprinkles tomorrow evening then the system exits and clearing will follow by dawn Tuesday. The wave will be kicked out by an approaching cold front which will introduce some patches of clouds Tuesday afternoon with nothing more than a few spotty quick-hitting showers mainly up north later in the day. After the cold frontal passage, the wind will become brisk and gusty Wednesday morning as cold air rushes in from Canada. From then on through Friday, temperatures will only peak out in the middle 40s which is a solid 10 degrees below the average for the first week of November. Presently, I am not expecting any real stormy weather with this cold outbreak but an upper air impulse might trigger a few snow showers later Thursday or Friday. Milder weather will return with sunshine next weekend.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

On Edge

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:58:46 GMT

We''ll be right on the edge of the first parcel of rain dripping across mainly eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon. There might be some spotty brief sprinkles as far north as the Mass Pike but the impulse will exit leaving the area in a lull tonight. Low level moisture may icrease so I am not ruling out some patches of mist forming during the night as temperatures settle just afew degrees from this afternoon's 46-53 degrees. The next impulse coming up from the Tennessee Valley has a higher risk of its rain shield penetrating as far north as southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire tomorrow. Its northern fringe will be edging into the Boston area for the morning commute so expect a damp and disagreeable Wednesday with highs mostly in the middle to upper 40s except a few lower 50s on Cape Cod where the northeasterly wind will be most brisk up to 25 mph. I am anticipating a light to moderate rain event with no downpours like last Saturday evening. As the upper air pattern amplifies into a deepening trough of low pressure over the Western States, ridging will flare up in the east and force tomorrow's wave of low pressure southeastward tomorrow night. This will open the gates for a zone of strengthening high air pressure to build southward from Quebec and Ontario into New England. Consequently, after a gloomy start, it will become sunnier on Thursday and beautifully bright on Friday when the temperatures should exceed 60 again. Once this elongating high pressure system builds offshore, a surge of warm air will push into New England sending temperatures through the 60s perhaps into the lower 70s on Halloween despite alot of cloudiness arriving. Presently, it appears that it will be mild, windy and somewhat showery for the trick or treaters late in the day. Following Halloween, latest indications suggest another wave of low pressure will track along the cold front and deliver rain on Sunday. Since this is a new development, we cannot be completely confident of this solution just yet.

Ken will add his thought later today.

Enjoy!